Key points
Event: GDP in the first quarter grew by 4.8% in a single quarter, with an expected growth rate of 4.8%; The monthly growth rate of production is 5%, which is expected to be 5.1%; The cumulative growth rate of fixed investment is 9.3%, and it is expected to be 8.6%; The monthly growth rate of social zero was - 3.5% and expected to be - 0.8%.
Core view:
The economic data submitted in March under the epidemic test is in line with expectations as a whole. Investment was less impacted, the growth rate of infrastructure investment rebounded sharply as scheduled, and the cumulative growth rate of real estate and manufacturing investment remained positive; Consumption has been greatly impacted, social zero has turned negative year-on-year, the performance of compulsory consumption is better, and the performance of optional consumption, automobile and residence is worse.
GDP grew by 4.8% in the first quarter, and GDP in the second quarter may continue to fluctuate at a low level to find the bottom. In terms of domestic demand, the spread of the epidemic in China has not been completely blocked. It is expected that the impact of the epidemic on consumption and supply chain will continue to ferment in the short term; In terms of external demand, imports turned negative in March, superimposed on the turmoil of the international situation, the Fed accelerated interest rate hike, or dragged down the expansion of global aggregate demand, and exports are expected to continue to fall. The high base in the same period last year will also put pressure on the year-on-year GDP in the second quarter.
In order to achieve the annual growth target of 5.5%, the policy still needs to be strengthened again, and the three main lines will continue to be promoted. First, accelerate the pace of infrastructure investment and stabilize domestic demand as soon as possible; Second, continue to promote the relaxation of real estate policies from bottom to top to prevent the negative growth rate of investment in the second half of the year; Third, help enterprises to rescue and stabilize the recovery momentum of manufacturing investment.
The GDP in the first quarter is dragged down by the service industry, and the GDP in the second quarter may continue to fluctuate at a low level to find the bottom.
The GDP growth rate of 4.8% in the first quarter was in line with expectations. The tertiary industry and service industry were greatly impacted by the epidemic, while the growth rate of the secondary and tertiary industries was higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year. Looking ahead, in terms of domestic demand, the spread of the epidemic in China has not been fully blocked, and consumption is still under pressure; In terms of external demand, the negative import in March will increase the drag on exports in April. Superimposed on the GDP base in the second quarter of last year, it is the highest in the year, and the GDP in the second quarter may continue to find the bottom at a low level. In order to achieve the annual economic growth target, policies need to continue to increase, stabilize domestic demand and hedge economic pressure as soon as possible.
Infrastructure construction: continue to rebound as scheduled, and the investment in electric heating, gas, water and public facilities is the main starting point.
In March, the year-on-year growth rate of generalized infrastructure reached 11.8%, 3.2 percentage points higher than 8.6% from January to February. The investment in electric heating, gas, water and public facilities is the main driving force, while the performance of roads and railways is poor. Under the impact of the epidemic, the urgency of infrastructure development has increased again. It is expected to continue in the first half of the year, and the growth rate is expected to maintain double-digit growth.
Real estate: sales continue to deteriorate, investment has strong short-term resilience, and the bottom-up policy relaxation will continue to be promoted
Recently, the real estate sales in the first and second tier cities accelerated to decline, and the national sales continued to decline. In March, the monthly growth rate of real estate investment turned negative slightly, which was different from the indicators that turned negative significantly, such as funds in place, new construction and completion. The reason was that the development investment was supported by land purchase fees, continuous construction of past projects and rising prices of building materials. However, if the real estate sales continue to deteriorate, it will impact the developers' new construction and land purchase tendency, and then impact the growth rate of development investment in the second half of the year. It is expected that in the second quarter, the relaxation of urban policies in real estate from bottom to top will continue to advance.
Manufacturing: the year-on-year growth rate fell sharply, and the month on month performance was slightly lower than that of seasonality
Manufacturing investment fell sharply year-on-year in March, mainly due to the base disturbance. On a month on month basis, manufacturing investment grew 34% month on month basis, slightly lower than 39% in the same period in history. In terms of chain, in addition to transportation equipment, the chain ratio of manufacturing industries is lower than that in the same period in history. Problems such as high upstream prices, sluggish terminal demand, falling profit growth and high inventory will weaken the momentum of manufacturing recovery, and the enterprise rescue policy still needs further efforts.
Consumption: the year-on-year growth rate of a single month in March turned negative, and the required consumption performed well
In March, the spread of the epidemic had a great impact on Residents' offline travel and consumption. The year-on-year growth rate of social zero was - 3.5%, and the year-on-year growth rate of catering retail sales fell to - 16.4%. In terms of sub items, only grain, oil and food, medicine and beverages performed well, while the growth rate of other daily necessities, optional consumer goods, automobiles, petroleum products and residential commodities fell.
Risk tip: repeated outbreaks outside China.
