Event:
On April 18, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that the GDP in the first quarter was 4.8% year-on-year and 4% of the previous value. In March, the added value of industries above designated size was 5% year-on-year and 7.5% of the previous value.
Comments:
GDP was stable in the first quarter, the interference of the epidemic on the economy was obvious in March, and industrial production fell in March
In the first quarter, GDP growth was stable, the secondary industry rebounded and the tertiary industry fell. GDP in the first quarter was 4.8% year-on-year (3-year compound of 4.9%), unchanged from market expectations. The GDP of the three industries was 6%, 5.8% and 4% respectively year-on-year. Except for the secondary industry, the primary and tertiary industries were lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year; In the three-year compound growth rate, the primary and tertiary industries decreased by 1.8 and 1.2 percentage points respectively, and the secondary industry increased by 1.3 percentage points. The decline of the first two may be related to the impact of the epidemic, while the recovery of the latter more reflects the recovery of production after power restriction and the interference of the epidemic in March.
The industrial production of most industries fell, and the production toughness of the midstream manufacturing industry was strong. In March, the industrial added value was 5% year-on-year, slightly lower than the 5.1% expected by the market, and the three-year compound was 5.8%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, manufacturing is the main drag, mining and electricity, fuel and water fall slightly. The added value of manufacturing industry is 4.4% year-on-year, 5.7% compound in three years and 2.4 percentage points lower than last month. The production of most major industries fell, but the output growth of midstream industries such as pharmaceutical manufacturing, electrical machinery, computer communication electronics and special equipment ranked first.
Infrastructure construction efforts supported overall investment, manufacturing investment fell, and real estate investment and sales fell sharply
The overall investment was supported by infrastructure construction, and the investment in manufacturing fell. In March, the fixed asset investment was 7.1% year-on-year, lower than 12.2% of the previous value, but the three-year compound investment was 5%, higher than 4.6% of the previous value. Among them, the investment in infrastructure construction was 11.8% year-on-year in the current month and 7.7% compound in three years, which were significantly higher than the previous value, and the investment in electricity, water and transportation rebounded significantly; The investment in manufacturing industry was 11.9% year-on-year, 20.9% lower than the previous value, 3.6% compound in three years and 4.4% lower than the previous value. The investment in major industries mostly fell, and the investment toughness in pharmaceutical manufacturing, computer communication and electronics was strong. Real estate investment turned negative, and the pressure of sales collection further increased. In March, real estate investment was - 2.4% year-on-year, compared with 3.7% year-on-year from January to February, with a three-year compound of 4.2%, lower than 6.3% of the previous value; Among them, construction, new construction and completion all fell, with a year-on-year rate of - 21.5%, - 22.2% and - 15.8% respectively. The growth rate after excluding the base is also negative. In March, the sales area of commercial housing was - 17.7% year-on-year and - 9.6% lower than the previous value. The expansion of the decline was partly due to the interference of the epidemic on house purchase activities, the decline of sales collection or further drag down the land acquisition and new construction of real estate enterprises.
The interference of the epidemic has begun to weaken gradually, the steady growth has turned to the "second step" and the "economic bottom" is imminent
Both social zero and consumer spending fell, and residents' income recovered. In March, social zero was - 3.5% year-on-year, lower than 6.7% of the previous value, compounded by 2.9% in three years, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the revenue of goods and catering was - 2.1% and - 16.4% year-on-year respectively. In the first quarter, residents' consumption expenditure compounded 4.9% year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, and residents' disposable income compounded 6.8% year-on-year, higher than 6.2% in the fourth quarter of last year.
Employment pressure is further highlighted. In March, the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, the second highest in the same period in history, only slightly lower than 5.9% in the same period in 2020; The survey unemployment rate of different age groups has rebounded. Among them, the unemployment rate of the population aged 16-24 rose to 16%, a record high in the same period. Meanwhile, the number of rural migrant workers increased, 1.29 million more in the first quarter than the same period in 2019, the first positive growth since the epidemic. Reiterate the view: the interference of the epidemic has begun to weaken gradually, the smooth transportation and resumption of work and production are being promoted in an orderly manner, and the road logistics and port transportation have begun to improve recently. Steady growth has gradually shifted from monetary easing and steady growth related financing in the first step to the improvement of physical demand in the second step. With the gradual decline of the impact of the epidemic and the appearance of the effect of stable growth, there is no need to be too pessimistic because the "economic bottom" is imminent (see "increase of" positive "signals of the epidemic").
Risk tip: the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations and the policy effect was less than expected.
