Core view
GDP growth in the first quarter was basically in line with the consensus expectations of the market, and the economic operation logic reflected by the data was also relatively clear: the epidemic is the core variable affecting the current economic recovery, and the policy has made efforts to hedge the economic downturn. In addition, the weakness of real estate has not changed significantly, and the manufacturing industry is still resilient due to weak external demand. However, it is necessary to observe the adverse impact of the continuous impact of the follow-up epidemic on China's supply chain.
The epidemic hit the third industry, while the second industry maintained resilience. In the first quarter, the GDP increased by 4.90% year-on-year on average, down 0.50 percentage points from the previous value. Among them, the primary industry increased by 3.55% year-on-year, down 1.14 percentage points from the previous value; The secondary industry increased by 5.92% year-on-year, an increase of 1.21 percentage points over the previous value; The tertiary industry increased by 4.38% year-on-year, down 1.65 percentage points from the previous value. The GDP growth measured year-on-year and three-year average year-on-year reflects the same information, that is, the current economic operation, the tertiary industry is under pressure, and the secondary industry has strong toughness.
Weak consumption, stable investment and strong export. From the demand side, consumption was weak, investment was stable and exports were strong in March. The three-year average growth rates of social retail, commodity and catering were 2.93%, 3.82% and - 5.19% respectively, down 1.38%, 0.85 and 6.72 percentage points respectively from January to February. In order to alleviate the downward pressure on the economy, policies have been taken to support the economy, which is reflected in the large upward range of year-on-year growth of infrastructure investment. Meanwhile, exports continued to remain resilient. In the first quarter, the average year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value of industrial enterprises was 9.81%.
Production is disturbed and the margin is weakened. From the production side, although the impact is not as big as the demand, the marginal impact can not be ignored. In March, the three-year average year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.82%, down 2.08 percentage points from January to February. The service industry production index increased by an average of 4.46% year-on-year in three years, down 1.38 percentage points from December last year.
Both supply and demand are weak, and employment is under pressure. In March, the national urban unemployment rate was 5.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the unemployment rates of the population survey aged 16-24 and 25-59 were 16.0% and 5.2% respectively, an increase of 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points over the previous month. The urban survey in March showed that the unemployment rate rose seasonally and the unemployment rate of the population aged 16-24 remained high, which needs attention.
Outlook. In the short term, there are certain variables in geopolitics, the trend of China's epidemic, the implementation of stable growth policy and the upward range of US debt. It is suggested to follow up and wait-and-see and respond flexibly. The undervalued value is still relatively dominant, but the structural differentiation may enter the middle and late stage. The Treasury bond yield center may remain low in the current range, and it may take some time for the market to repair economic expectations.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations and geopolitical risks exceeded expectations
