Key investment points
Industrial high frequency periodicity observation. 1) Inflation. Last week (04.11-04.15, the same below), the price of pork fell to 18.30 yuan / kg, the specific price of pig grain fell to 4.38, the price of chicken fell, the price of beef fell, the price of mutton rose, the price of vegetables fell and the price of fruit rose. 2) Industry. Last week, the operating rate of blast furnace went up, the operating rate of coking enterprises with various capacity went down, the price of rebar went down and the inventory fell; Copper prices rose and inventories accumulated. 3) Consumption. The year-on-year growth rate of Automobile wholesale and retail fell sharply, and the film box office revenue and film viewers fell month on month. 4) Real estate. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities rose on a weekly basis, and the transaction area of land in 100 cities fell on a weekly basis.
Weekly observation of financial markets. 1) Stock market. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 321124 points, down 1.25% week on week; The gem index closed at 246036, down 4.26% week on week. In terms of industry sectors, food and beverage, commercial trade and household appliances led the rise, while electrical equipment, media and communication led the decline. 2) Bond market. The yield of interest rate bonds fell, the term interest rate spread widened, and the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed. On April 15, the yields of 1y treasury bonds, 10Y treasury bonds, 1y CDB bonds and 10Y CDB bonds closed at 1.99%, 2.76%, 2.16% and 2.99% respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by - 8bp, 0.5bp, - 6BP and - 0.5bp respectively; The term spreads of 10y-1y treasury bonds and CDB bonds were 77bp and 83bp respectively, and the week on week ratio changed by 8bp and 5bp respectively; The interest rate difference between China and the United States closed at - 7bp and narrowed by 11bp. 3) Commodities. Commodity prices generally rose last week. The futures prices of coke, rebar, thermal coal, cathode copper, PTA, soybean oil, soybean meal and white granulated sugar all rose. The cement price index fell, the Nanhua metal index rose, and the price of ine crude oil futures rebounded to close at 676.2 yuan / barrel.
Weekly observation of macro policies. 1) Monetary policy. Last week, a total of 60 billion yuan was invested in reverse repo on the open market, 40 billion yuan was due for reverse repo, 150 billion yuan was invested in MLF, 150 billion yuan was due for MLF, 70 billion yuan was due for fixed deposit of treasury cash, and 50 billion yuan was returned in the broad open market in the whole week. Dr001 and dr007 closed at 1.34% and 1.73% respectively, and the yield of Shibor and 1y interbank certificates of deposit closed at 2.34% and 2.46% respectively in March. 2) Policy developments. The central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio).
Core view. 1) Pig prices have rebounded and the price ratio of pig to grain has fallen. In terms of inflation, pork prices rose last week and the price ratio of pig to grain fell, but the de production of pigs is still in the process and the supply is still in the stage of surplus; The intensification of contradictions between Russia and Ukraine led to the rise of crude oil prices. From the perspective of supply, the operating rate of blast furnace is up, the operating rate of small, medium and large coking enterprises is down, and the operating rate of small capacity coking enterprises continues to turn against super medium capacity coking enterprises. In terms of demand, automobile wholesale and retail fell sharply year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic, film box office revenue and person times fell month on month; The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities rose month on month, the transaction area of land in 100 cities fell month on month, and the marginal policy of multi land real estate demand side was relaxed. 2) The RRR reduction is less than expected, and the credit extension needs to be strengthened. On April 15, the central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement. Under the internal and external pressures such as the continuous "triple pressure" on the economy, the increasing difficulty of epidemic prevention and control, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase plus the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, this reduction is necessary, which is conducive to boosting market confidence. However, the rate of reduction is halved, which is lower than the market expectation. We believe that under the condition that the current liquidity is at a reasonable and sufficient level, the focus of this reduction is not to release liquidity, but to guide financial institutions to support the weak links of the real economy by reducing the debt cost of financial institutions. The follow-up credit easing policy is the focus, and the manufacturing PMI fell back below the boom and bust line in March; In March, the total amount of social finance was bright, the structure improved poorly, and the medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents were weak, indicating that the financing demand of the real economy was weak, and the relaxation policy of real estate has not yet been transmitted to the sales end; In the face of internal and external pressure on the economy, the follow-up epidemic prevention and control is the main contradiction at present. In addition, it is necessary to superimpose the power of fiscal policy and the marginal relaxation of real estate policy, so as to enhance the credit demand and stimulate the vitality of the main body.
Risk tip: there is a risk of epidemic spread in China, and the overseas situation has changed more than expected.
