Event: the cumulative industrial added value was 6.5% year-on-year and 0.39% month on month. The cumulative investment in fixed assets was 9.3% year-on-year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 3.3% year-on-year, falling as a whole.
Under the influence of China's epidemic and overseas geopolitical risks, GDP growth slowed down and industrial capacity utilization fell. In the first quarter, the economy was subjected to multiple tests at home and abroad, and the decline of the tertiary industry was relatively greater. Under the influence of frequent outbreaks and prevention and control policies in China, enterprises in some cities are facing pressure from start-up, cost and employment, and the utilization rate of industrial capacity is lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2021.
The growth rate of industrial production slowed down, the mining industry continued to rise, the manufacturing industry, power and gas supply fell, and the production of some downstream industrial chains slowed down. Raw coal production maintained growth, the self-produced and guaranteed supply of coal increased, the decline in cement and steel production narrowed, and the output of chemical fiber and nonferrous metals increased year-on-year. The overall decline in the middle and lower reaches of the manufacturing industry, the production of the equipment manufacturing industry slowed down, and the growth rate of automobiles, integrated circuits and microelectronics computers in the lower reaches slowed down. The production part of the automobile industry chain was affected by the epidemic prevention and control in Shanghai.
The overall decline of investment, the cold market of commercial housing sales, and the accelerated decline of new construction area. Under the pressure of continuous tightening of capital sources of real estate enterprises, construction and land acquisition continued to slow down, and real estate sales continued to be cold after the year. Residents' income and willingness to buy houses have been affected by the epidemic, and real estate investment has not bottomed out in the short term. The policy continues to be liberalized, but the residents' confidence has not been repaired. In the future, it is necessary to release the benefits of more residents' mortgage loans and give more concessions to new citizens.
Infrastructure investment entered the upward channel, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment fell. With the support of special bonds and other funds, infrastructure is expected to become an important support item on the investment side. From the perspective of sub items, the acceleration of power construction is still one of the main thrust of infrastructure construction. Part of the manufacturing industry has been disturbed by the epidemic and has fallen in stages. Small and medium-sized enterprises have been more affected by high costs and the epidemic.
Consumption fell significantly, and the service industry production index fell. Catering income stalled and fell. Under the epidemic and prevention and control policies, income uncertainty increased and residents' Consumption Willingness fell. After deducting price factors, consumption fell even more. Optional consumption fell as a whole, the consumption of downstream industries of real estate continued to decline, and the growth rate of food, beverage and drug consumption of mandatory consumption rebounded upward. Under the prevention and control policy, logistics will be blocked, and offline and online consumption will be damaged. Under the pressure of price supply of some vegetables and fruits in the epidemic area, the price also rose.
The unemployment rate continues to rise, and the epidemic has a great impact on employment in big cities. Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities have an impact on employment. The unemployment rate of 25-59 years old continues to rise, and the unemployment rate of 16-24 years old also increases. The employment season of fresh students is affected by the epidemic, and the recruitment of enterprises may be delayed.
Services, consumption and real estate sales have been greatly affected, and some industrial chain production has also brought some interference. The follow-up economy and market still need policy care. The epidemic has brought a phased drag on the economy in the first quarter. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter is still a certain distance from the target of 5.5% of the whole year. The real estate investment has not yet bottomed out, and the credit and finance will continue to work. The pace of resumption of work and production and preventing the spread of the epidemic to other cities remain the key to the restoration of industrial growth. Under various pressures such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, European and American sanctions, the intensification of the epidemic and the accelerated interest rate reduction and table reduction of the Federal Reserve, the wide currency will still escort the wide credit, but the range will be constrained.
