Digital RMB: positioning M0 and adhering to centralized management. 1) In terms of positioning, digital RMB is mainly positioned at M0 to realize controllable anonymous, double offline payment and financial risk management; It supports the loose coupling function of bank accounts and does not calculate and pay interest. 2) In terms of structure, the issuance and circulation of digital RMB adopts a two-tier structure. In the issuance link, the central bank shall adhere to the centralized management of the central bank to maintain the stability of monetary policy. In the exchange link, the commercial bank as the designated operating institution shall undertake the exchange service, and in the circulation link, the operating institution commercial bank shall jointly provide circulation services with other commercial banks and third-party payment institutions. 3) Technically, the research and development of digital RMB adopts the principle of “technology neutrality” and only draws lessons from the distributed ledger technology of blockchain for right confirmation and query.
Policy support and rapid progress of the pilot. The people’s Bank of China set up a digital RMB research group in 2014 and began a pilot to accelerate the implementation of digital RMB in 2019. At present, the “steady promotion of digital RMB research and development and orderly and controllable pilot” has been officially included in the 14th five year plan, and policy support has been increasing. The industrial map of digital RMB mainly covers the fields of issuance, circulation, payment and settlement, scenario application, equipment transformation and technological innovation in the whole process. Since 2019, the implementation of digital RMB pilot has been accelerated. During the pilot process, the central bank has widely cooperated with traditional financial institutions, Internet companies and retail merchants to closely combine the issuance and circulation with the transaction scenario, and issue digital currency in the form of red envelope subsidies, which is in line with the hearts of retail customers and easy to be accepted by the public, laying a solid foundation for the wide use of digital RMB. Taking Shenzhen as an example, the four tests covered basic functions, diversified trading scenarios, targeted inclusive subsidies and a wider range of people and scenarios, and the test results were good.
The promotion of digital RMB has a far-reaching impact. 1) In terms of monetary policy, the monetary structure will change with the decrease of cash and the increase of reserves; After amplifying the money multiplier effect, the money supply will increase; It will also help the precise delivery of monetary policy, make the transmission of monetary policy more smooth and open the space of monetary policy. 2) In terms of supervision, digital RMB greatly improves the supervision ability and brings new risks, but the overall advantages outweigh the disadvantages. 3) In terms of the financial system, it will fully benefit from payment to operation. Specifically, cross-border payment will be improved. At the same time, as a payment portal, digital RMB app will drain retail customers of commercial banks and bring more customer accumulation to corporate business; Third party payment institutions will also give full play to their existing technology, experience and user ecology to become an important carrier of digital RMB. 4) Bank it related enterprises, especially in the fields of basic chips, application technology, payment, circulation and settlement, will take the lead in ushering in development opportunities.
Investment suggestion: Digital RMB is still in the early stage of rapid development. Grasp the investment opportunities of digital RMB from two aspects of hardware equipment and software system. 1) A major feature of digital RMB is that it supports the payment of mobile phone NFC, bracelet wearable devices and other hardware. Hardware manufacturers may benefit from the improvement of the acceptance of digital RMB “Hard Wallet” and usher in more relevant orders to promote the improvement of performance. It is suggested to pay attention to Xgd Inc(300130) . 2) Software manufacturers may benefit from the huge demand brought by the upgrading of the financial system, especially the matching upgrading, to promote business growth; Recommend Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , and pay attention to Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) .
Risk tips: 1) the epidemic has caused the macro-economy to be less than expected; 2) Payment habits are difficult to change, and the promotion of digital RMB is less than the expected risk; 3) Risk of immaturity of underlying technologies related to digital currency.
