Key investment points:
Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) arrange the preparation for resumption of work and production, and suspend the crisis of interruption of automobile industry chain. Affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, the shutdown of Shanghai automobile industry endangers the Yangtze River Delta and even the national automobile industry chain, which may have a great impact on the national economy. On April 15, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of resumption of work and production: 1) before the full unsealing of Shanghai, the subordinate enterprises were uniformly reported to apply for the early start of the white list of resumption of work and production enterprises, 2) the resumption personnel, employees’ back to work commuting, service ability, supply chain ability, resumption of work and production scheduling, safe production, and the preparation for transportation inside and outside the city of the subordinate enterprises were surveyed, and 3) the resumption of work and production stress test was started on April 18, Enterprises that pass the test shall arrange the production of complete vehicles and parts as soon as possible. On the evening of April 16, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of economy and information technology issued the guidelines for the prevention and control of the epidemic situation of industrial enterprises returning to work and production. We believe that the interruption crisis of the automobile industry chain will be suspended, and the subsequent production is expected to gradually recover.
In March, new energy vehicles maintained a high growth rate, and independent brands grew against the trend. In mid March, the automobile sales volume of the automobile association was 2.234 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. Since March, the epidemic situation in Guangdong, Jilin, Shanghai and other production and marketing regions has repeatedly caused great disturbance to the automobile production and marketing. The highlights of the production and sales data in March are as follows: 1) the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 484000, 114.1% year-on-year, and continued to grow strongly; Among them, the sales volume of BEV was 395000, with a year-on-year increase of 108.3%; The sales volume of PHEV was 88000, with a year-on-year increase of 143.5%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in March was 21.67%, an increase of 2.5pct compared with February. 2) In March, the sales volume of Chinese brand passenger cars was 904000, an increase of 21.5%. In March, the market share of independent brands was 48.5%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.8pct; The amount from January to march was 45.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.6pct.
Investment suggestions: 1) affected by Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) Mopai’s resumption of work and production, the change of auto parts in the afternoon of Friday (April 15) ushered in a sharp rebound. We believe that the inflection point of epidemic or shutdown has come. Referring to the trend of the automobile sector during the 2020q1 epidemic, the direction after the rebound of the inflection point depends on the recovery of consumption after the epidemic. Considering the wide impact of the epidemic, greater economic damage and greater suppression on consumers’ demand for cars, the recovery is expected to be slower. We maintain the judgment of “Q2 continues to find the bottom, and the big market may be in the second half of the year”. 2) Considering that after nearly five months of adjustment, the valuation of the automobile sector is relatively reasonable (PE is 34.0 and Pb is 2.4, which is 37.1% and 49.7% in the past three years), and the trend of independent rise in the medium and long term is clear, we suggest to layout the automobile sector on a bargain hunting basis. 1) complete vehicle: after continuous adjustment, the valuation is relatively reasonable, and it is suggested to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal vehicle, Xiaopeng automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; 2) Auto parts: we suggest to focus on three directions: ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Intelligent automobile industry chain, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ; ③ Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) .
Risk warning: the fermentation of epidemic situation and shutdown of automobile industry exceeded expectations; Bulk price increase and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations; The recovery of industry demand was less than expected.
