Basic conclusion
In March, social zero was dragged down by the epidemic situation, which must be high growth, and offline + optional drag. On April 18, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of social zero in March. The total amount of social zero in March decreased by 3.5% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles decreased by 3.0%. By type of consumption, retail sales in March fell by 2.1% year-on-year; Catering revenue decreased by 16.4%, and social zero was heavily dragged down by catering. Among the total social retail sales, the online retail sales of physical goods decreased significantly by 2.67% year-on-year in March, or due to the poor logistics caused by the epidemic in March.
In terms of commodity retail segments, the epidemic impact is obvious. For those with the attribute of hoarding, the growth rate of grain, oil and food (a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, the same below), beverages (12.6%) and traditional Chinese and Western Medicine (11.9%) in the mandatory selection is higher, and the clothing, shoes and hats textiles (- 12.7%), cosmetics (- 6.3%), gold and silver jewelry (- 17.9%), furniture (- 8.8%) and automobiles (- 7.5%) in the optional selection have a large decline.
Consumption data tracking in March: 1. The travel intensity decreased, dragging down offline and optional consumption. According to the data of Civil Aviation Administration and flight steward, China’s transport capacity recovered sharply to 44% in March this year, and the passenger flow recovered to 34% in the same period in 2019. The epidemic has a great impact on travel. Travel restrictions restrict offline consumption scenarios, further reduce the intensity of passenger flow in scenic spots and business districts, put pressure on catering to store consumption, and the boom of optional consumption such as textile clothing / cosmetics / gold jewelry is down. 2. The online boom performance is affected by logistics, and the demand may be released intensively after it is unblocked. Due to the risk of spillover, the logistics and supply chain have been continuously affected since March. In the middle and late March and the first and middle of April, or the time period with the greatest impact, the online consumption supply is limited by logistics, thus dragging down the demand. In March, the overall performance of the e-commerce platform was average. The demand for mandatory food such as dairy products was relatively booming, but due to logistics restrictions, the e-commerce consumption of mandatory food was limited to a certain extent; The differentiation of online categories of household appliances is obvious, and the demand for refrigerators, freezers and small kitchen appliances (especially air fryers) is increasing. With the smooth flow of logistics, the further release of demand can be expected; Although the performance of cosmetics is generally average, the performance of “618” still needs to be observed in Q2 because the epidemic occurred after “3.8” and the impact of head brands is expected to be controllable; The overall demand for textile clothing is general. If the travel recovery is expected to drive the performance of sports shoes, clothing, bags and other categories. Different from the situation at the beginning of 2020, the current round of epidemic has a great impact on logistics, the occurrence time of the epidemic has been long, and some low-income people have a great impact. It is expected that the rebound in consumption after the current round of epidemic may not be as strong as before; However, some categories with relatively rigid demand are expected to still perform well.
Investment advice
Logistics and supply chain are expected to recover gradually. On April 18, Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, attended the national teleconference on ensuring smooth logistics and promoting the stability of industrial chain and supply chain, and deployed ten important measures. The meeting called for efforts to achieve “people’s livelihood, smooth freight transportation and circular industry”. At the same time, the resumption of work and production is being carried out in an orderly manner.
Logistics recovery depends on the first choice, and scene repair depends on services and optional consumption. As the logistics and supply chain is expected to be gradually unblocked in the near future, the demand for consumer goods and high prosperity kitchen products will be released. In the short term, it is necessary to see the first choice. After the outbreak, if the consumer scenario is repaired, consumer suggestions should be concerned with several main lines: 1, the catering, beer retaliatory consumption brought by consumer scenario repair, the demand for Baijiu (high-end / high-end), and the bottom rebound of service consumption such as wine brigade, tax-free, offline retail (gold jewelry, mother and baby shop). 2. The demand for beauty makeup, sports shoes and clothing, luggage, stationery, etc. driven by the recovery of travel; 3. Household appliances (refrigerators, freezers, small kitchen appliances), household appliances, home textiles, etc. affected by logistics in the epidemic may increase in a centralized release mode in the second quarter with the smooth flow of logistics.
Risk tips
The risk of prolonged epidemic, lack of consumer confidence and less than expected logistics recovery.
