Industry perspective:
New energy power generation: the total investment cost of photovoltaic power station remains stable. Recently, Guangdong energy corps, Huaneng, China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) and other photovoltaic e projects have publicized the bid winning candidates. The appeal project EPC covers all aspects of the initial construction of photovoltaic projects, which basically represents the current construction cost of photovoltaic projects in southern China. Energy construction Yingde requires energy storage with 20% capacity, and Hainan traffic control Ledong County project requires energy storage with 50% capacity. Therefore, the price is relatively high. From a unified perspective, the current EPC cost of photovoltaic project is between 3.8-4 yuan, and the energy storage cost is about 1.5 yuan / wh. Subject to the high prices of silicon materials and bulk commodities, the prices of components and supports are at a high level. The promotion of large-size components has led to a slight decrease in the cost of BOS. From 2020 to now, the overall investment cost of photovoltaic has remained stable. In the future, with the easing of the supply chain, the component price is expected to return to 1.6-17 yuan / W, driving the overall cost down. In the long run, the cost reduction process depends on technological progress, and the improvement of component Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) utilization efficiency is the key to the cost reduction of the industry.
Transmission and distribution: the price of UHV transmission will be lowered. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued a document approving the transmission price and line loss rate of Ningshao, Jiuhu and xitaite HVDC projects. It also stipulates that in the actual operation of the above projects, the risk caused by the transmission line loss rate exceeding the pricing line loss rate shall be borne by the power grid enterprise, and the income generated by the line loss rate lower than the nuclear price shall be shared by the power grid enterprise and power users by 50%. Compared with the approved price in the early stage, the power price of Ningshao line has been reduced by 31.69%, the line loss rate has been reduced by 2.24%, Jiuhu line has been reduced by 9.13%, and the line loss rate has been reduced by 2.36%. The mileage of the newly put into operation Xitai project is similar to that of Ningdong Shaoxing ± 800 kV HVDC transmission project, and there has also been a significant reduction. The decline of transmission price plays a positive role in promoting the cross regional consumption of new energy power. With the further deepening of power reform, it is expected that the transmission price of new UHV projects will be greatly reduced, and the nuclear power price of stock projects that meet the conditions of regular verification may also face adjustment.
Lithium battery: the demand for diaphragm increases rapidly, and the price shows an upward trend. According to evtank data, in 2021, the overall global shipment of lithium-ion batteries was 562.4gwh, with a significant year-on-year increase of 91.0%; In 2021, China shipped 7.8 billion square meters of lithium battery diaphragms, with a year-on-year increase of more than 100%. In terms of demand, we estimate that the global lithium battery demand from 2022 to 2025 is expected to be 813.45, 117707, 162157 and 224889 GWH respectively, and the corresponding diaphragm demand is 115.92, 167.73, 23107 and 32.047 billion square meters respectively. The growth rate of diaphragm demand is 44.6%, 44.7%, 37.8% and 38.7% respectively. In terms of supply, leading enterprises have announced to expand production. According to incomplete statistics of Gaogong lithium battery, in 2021, China’s diaphragm enterprises planned to expand production capacity (including coating capacity) by about 22 billion square meters, with a total investment of more than 56 billion yuan. The total existing and planned production capacity of diaphragm enterprise TOP10 has exceeded 43.8 billion square meters. Considering the construction cycle and yield of production line, the relationship between supply and demand of diaphragm in China will gradually change to short supply from 2022 to 2023, In 2025, diaphragm production will be in balance between supply and demand. At present, the supply and demand of mainstream lithium battery diaphragm enterprises are in tight balance, superimposing the impact of the epidemic, and the operating rate of lithium battery diaphragm industry is reduced, which has a certain impact on the supply. Affected by the sharp rise in international oil prices, the market price of diaphragm raw materials has increased accordingly. At present, the diaphragm price remains stable as a whole, and there are still rising expectations in the future.
Important industry information:
Carbon peak carbon neutralization leading group office: crack down on carbon emission data fraud. On the afternoon of April 8, the leading group office of carbon peak carbon neutralization held a teleconference to inform the problems related to the falsification of carbon market data, deploy to crack down on the falsification of carbon emission data and promote the healthy and orderly development of carbon market. Hu Zucai, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. Ye min, Vice Minister of the Ministry of ecological environment, briefed on relevant issues. Su Wei, Deputy Secretary General of the national development and Reform Commission, presided over the meeting.
One week market performance:
Industry performance: among the 28 Shenwan level industries, the power equipment industry fell 7.77%, ranking 28th; The utility industry fell 2.81% this week, ranking 14th.
Performance of sub sectors: among the sub sectors, hydropower generation, comprehensive power equipment manufacturers and gas III ranked among the top three, with increases of 3.81%, 0.00% and 0.76% respectively; Photovoltaic power generation, distribution equipment and photovoltaic processing equipment ranked the last three, with – 6.7%, – 6.66% and – 5.75% respectively.
Growth of individual stocks: Among Listed Companies in the power and energy industry, Tellhow Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(600590) , Galaxy Biomedical Investment Co.Ltd(000806) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) rose in the top five, rising 14.18%, 12.62%, 12.48%, 11.52% and 11.52% respectively.
