Resumption 2020: pay attention to the impact and replenishment of the epidemic, and grasp the catalytic valuation of marginal changes. The impact of this round of repeated outbreak on the Baijiu industry is similar to that of 2020Q1. From the perspective of the overall production and marketing, the Baijiu sales of liquor during the epidemic period have been significantly weakened, and the subsequent peak season has become the key. According to different price bands, high-end: 1) performance: the impact of the epidemic on performance is limited, and it takes the lead in recovery after the epidemic, with strong risk resistance; 2) Volume: the sales volume of maowu is stable, the proportion of high-end products is increased, and the product structure is continuously optimized; 3) Price: the replenishment speed price is ahead of the quantity. Feitian's approval price has continued to rise since the new cases in Hubei Province were cleared. Secondary high-end, 1) performance: it shows obvious differentiation, and Fenjiu and drunkard perform prominently; 2) Volume: the output decreased higher than the industry average, and the proportion of Fenjiu and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) company's high-end products increased; 3) Price: enjoy the bonus of industry expansion, and the upgrading of secondary high-end consumption is obvious. Local wine, 1) performance: the consumption scene is missing, which is significantly hit by the epidemic; 2) Volume: the movable sales are obviously limited, and the production and sales decline sharply, which has a greater impact than the high-end and sub high-end; 3) Price: the prices are obviously differentiated, the high-end products have dropped significantly, and the middle and low-end products remain stable. In addition, most Baijiu enterprises actively reduce sales costs and enhance their profitability.
Outlook 2022: consumption upgrading is delayed, and the replenishment may be slower than 2020. From the perspective of production and marketing, most Baijiu enterprises achieved a good start in 1-2 months, and the epidemic situation in March had limited impact on Q1. However, since April, the epidemic prevention and control has been upgraded again. If there is still no marginal improvement before the Spring Festival in June, the consumption upgrading may slow down in the short term; Judging from the price, flying prices have fallen 25%-30%, due to the early foam, the current price rebounded slightly, the remaining single product price is stable, toughness appears, in the long term, high-end wine price volume larger space, the growth of the ceiling is high; From the performance point of view, during the Spring Festival, many liquor enterprises achieved a "good start", and the impact of the epidemic on the first quarter was limited. After that, we need to pay attention to the marginal change of sealing and control. We expect that if it can be quickly ended in early May, it will not fundamentally change the annual performance.
Stock price resumption and deduction: the peak season is expected to become a catalyst, and pay attention to the high-end price band. Resumption: the zero clearing day is the inflection point, and then a new cycle starts. Mao five shares took the lead in opening up a new round of Baijiu bull market. Over the same year, the stock price of many liquor companies increased by 100%. Deduction: from the time axis, the proposal focuses on the change in the number of new people in the epidemic situation, and the high-end Baijiu is expected to take the lead. From the perspective of share price growth, the current valuation level is close to the lowest market value in the past two years, which has a certain margin of safety, but it is less likely to replicate the rapid growth of share price in 2020.
Focus on the short-term investment, and pay attention to the stable investment. On the investment target, we first recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , and pay attention to the operational inflection point of real estate wine; 1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : in 2022, the company will carry out reform in price and channels. With the effect of all-round anti-corrosion reform, the brand-new Maotai is worth looking forward to; 2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the core goal of the company in 2022 is to support the price, gradually optimize the product launch structure and adjust the market; 3) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the equity incentive scheme of the company has been implemented. In the future, driven by Guojiao and Tequ, the development of the 14th five year plan will enter a new cycle.
Risk tip: the pace of economic recovery needs to be observed. The local repeated impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, and the relevant calculation has limitations
