\u3000\u30006 Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co.Ltd(000096) 00009)
Event: the company achieved a revenue of 3.728 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 1.71 billion, which continued to expand compared with – 1.27 billion in the same period last year. The main reason for the company’s loss is that the repeated epidemic has led to the failure of the normal operation of international routes.
China’s airline demand has recovered to more than 80% in 19 years, but international routes are seriously limited: in terms of China’s demand, Pudong Airport has achieved a passenger throughput of 30.53 million person times in China throughout the year, recovering to 81.1% in 19 years, an increase from 25.61 million person times in the same period in 20 years. However, in terms of international lines (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), the annual passenger throughput is only 820000, far lower than 32.4 million in 19 years and 4.1 million in the same period in 20 years (the “five ones” have not been implemented in the first two months of 2020). The limitation of international line is still the most serious test faced by the company, because it is related to the tax-free business, the company’s largest source of profit.
The new tax-free agreement only contributed 468 million yuan of income in the whole year: the company signed a supplementary tax-free agreement with China tax exemption. Under the new agreement, the tax-free income is no longer linked to the tax-free sales of the airport, but directly related to the company’s international passenger throughput. Therefore, under the current circumstances, the tax-free income that the company can obtain is far lower than that before the epidemic. The annual contribution income was only 468 million yuan.
Labor costs and financial expenses have been greatly increased: labor costs are the biggest increase in the company’s costs this year. The number of on-the-job workers of the company was basically the same, but the labor cost increased from 1.968 billion yuan to 2.174 billion yuan, an increase of more than 10%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in employee social security support in the current period.
The significant increase in the company’s financial expenses was mainly due to the change of accounting standards, and the leased assets were recorded in the form of use right assets, resulting in an increase of 16.7 billion yuan in the company’s use right assets. The original site rental fee payable by the company to the airport group was divided into two parts: site rent and interest expense of lease liabilities. In the current period, the company assumed about 570 million yuan of interest expenses on lease liabilities, resulting in an increase in financial expenses from – 280 million yuan last year to 430 million yuan this year.
The investment income met the expectation: the company realized a total investment income of 780 million yuan in the whole year, an increase of about 32% compared with 590 million yuan in the same period last year. Degao momentum contributed 182 million yuan of investment income, slightly lower than that in the same period last year; Aviation Oil Company contributed 193 million yuan, an increase of 27% over the same period last year.
Injection into Hongqiao Airport can speed up the process of turning losses: the company plans to issue shares to buy Hongqiao company, logistics company and Pudong four runways held by the airport group. It is roughly estimated that the acquisition can bring more than 1 billion profit increment to the company in the non epidemic period, and 500600 million profit increment under the influence of the epidemic, which greatly speeds up the process of turning losses of the company. The acquisition price was 19.1 billion yuan, in line with expectations.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: without considering the acquisition of assets, the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be -1.23 billion yuan, 1.03 billion yuan and 3.01 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is -0.64, 0.53 and 1.56 yuan respectively. In the long run, as China’s largest international passenger import, the company’s position in the duty-free industrial chain is difficult to shake. However, due to the great uncertainty of the epidemic in the short term, we maintain the company’s “neutral” rating out of caution.
Risk tip: the duration of the epidemic exceeded expectations and the cost of epidemic prevention exceeded expectations
