\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 551 Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) )
Key investment points
The annual performance was in line with expectations, and the revenue of power semiconductor increased rapidly. Benefiting from the strong demand for testing equipment in new energy and other industries and the expansion of the company’s production line, the company achieved an operating revenue of 248 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 52.34%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 57 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.33%, basically in line with our expectations. In terms of business, the revenue of test power supply was 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.53%; The revenue of fuel power supply test equipment was 60 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41.08%; The revenue of power semiconductor testing and intelligent manufacturing equipment was 16 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 321415%. Considering the explosion of downstream demand for fuel cells and power semiconductors, and the company’s increased layout in related fields, we expect that the proportion of the company’s revenue in these two fields will continue to increase in the future.
The substantial increase in R & D investment has led to a decline in profitability. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 51.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.62pcts, mainly due to the intensification of market competition, the rise of raw material prices and other factors; Among them, the gross profit margin of test power supply was 52.31%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.39 PCTs, fuel cell test equipment was 52.69%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4 PCTs, and power semiconductor test and intelligent manufacturing equipment was 36.56%, a year-on-year decrease of 25.54 PCTs; The net interest rate was 22.93%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.33pcts. During the period, the expense rate was 38.32%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.08pcts; Among them, the sales / management / Finance / R & D expense ratio was 10.37/10.30 / – 1.31/18.96% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.78 / – 1.85 / – 0.65/7.36pcts respectively. The R & D expense ratio increased significantly, mainly because the company continued to increase R & D investment in order to enrich product line layout and enhance market competitiveness. By the end of 2021, the company had 224 R & D personnel, with a year-on-year increase of 133.33%.
One horizontal and one vertical, optimistic about Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) developing into a comprehensive testing equipment company. The company has extended its application horizontally in the series of power product lines and continued to expand new fields; In the vertical depth of fuel cell and power semiconductor product line sequence, increase the income level through internal incubation and foreign investment. 1) Fuel cell testing: since the end of 2016, the company has started to enter the field of hydrogen energy testing, gradually has the full stack testing ability from micro to system to production line, and has realized the comprehensive layout of testing equipment from “hydrogen use” to “hydrogen production”, which is expected to fully benefit from the rapid development of hydrogen energy industry in the future. 2) Power semiconductor testing: during the reporting period, the company achieved stable operation after successively completing the delivery of testing equipment products in the Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) three production lines of CRRC, and received another test equipment order from CRRC Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) to continuously consolidate the company’s domestic substitution position in the field of power module testing; In addition to CRRC Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , the company also actively communicates with leading customers in other industries, and carries out sample delivery, business negotiation and other work. At the same time, the company deepened the layout of the industrial chain by acquiring 71.65% equity of Hanxian technology, overweight IGBT module packaging and testing equipment, and reserving SiC device test bench and module real scene test system.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 369 million yuan / 529 million yuan / 715 million yuan and a net profit of 76 million yuan / 124 million yuan / 169 million yuan in 202224. The current price earnings ratio of the stock price is 40x / 24x / 18x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The downstream demand of photovoltaic power generation and new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the progress of new product development is lower than expected, and the gross profit margin is declining due to intensified market competition.
