\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Company events. On April 17, the company announced that Reliance Industries issued letter of commitment to Singapore Maiwei, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. According to the above LOC agreement, Reliance Industries plans to purchase Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , 8 complete lines of quality battery production equipment from Singapore Maiwei, with a total capacity of 600MW / piece, totaling 4.8gw. The total purchase amount exceeds 50% of the company’s audited operating revenue in 2021, but does not reach 100%.
Domestic hjt equipment went to sea again and continued to be recognized by overseas customers. Reliance Industries is a listed company in India. According to Fortune magazine in 2021, it ranks 155th in the world’s top 500, with a revenue of US $62.912 billion and a profit of US $6.619 billion in fiscal year 2020. Reliance Industries acquired the equity of recsolar from China Bluestar Group for us $771 million in October 2021. After the acquisition, reliance will support rec’s expansion plan. The cooperation between the company and rec originated in 2019. Then in December 2021, the company and rec Group signed an order for 400mwhjt heterojunction battery whole line equipment for the first time. The signing of this 4.8gw order represents the high recognition of Maiwei hjt heterojunction whole line equipment by overseas enterprises.
The cumulative export performance of overseas equipment is expected to exceed 2 billion in the future. Superimposed on the 400MW heterostructure whole line equipment orders in December 2021, the company’s overseas export equipment orders reach 5.2gw. Assuming that the current price of the company’s heterostructure whole line equipment is 400 million yuan / GW, we believe that the current overseas order scale of the company is about 2.08 billion yuan. In terms of follow-up planning, in the short term, REC plans to reach 15gw of hjt capacity in 2023 (including 10GW in India and 5GW in Singapore); In the long run, Reliance Industries plans to build at least 100gw of photovoltaic projects by 2030, which is expected to account for 20% of India’s 450gw photovoltaic construction master plan. With the continuous advancement of the project, REC and Maiwei have a high possibility of further cooperation, and the company’s export orders may continue to grow.
The cost reduction of heterojunction batteries continues to be promoted: 1) manufacturing costs: due to the small scale of heterojunction battery single projects in China, the manufacturing costs such as energy, depreciation and labor are relatively high. The large-scale application of battery projects can greatly dilute the cost of single Watt, which has a significant demonstration effect, reducing the manufacturing cost by about 0.08 yuan / W. 2) Low indium and low silver technology: the company has achieved 25.62% photoelectric conversion efficiency on full-size M6 monocrystalline silicon heterojunction battery through TCO process with low indium content and silver clad copper gate wire. This technology can reduce the amount of indium and silver to 30% and 45% respectively, and reduce the material cost by about 0.17 yuan / W, totaling 0.25 yuan / W. Compared with the previous technology application with the highest battery conversion efficiency of 26.07% (double-sided microcrystallization + new high mobility TCO process + electroplating process), although the conversion efficiency of low indium and low silver technology is about 0.45pct low, the material consumption is basically reduced to half or less of the original consumption, significantly reducing the non silicon cost. Cost reduction and efficiency improvement under various paths are expected to promote the wider application of heterojunction batteries.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the company’s heterostructure whole line supply capacity. Superimposed on the first mover advantage in the heterostructure equipment industry, we expect the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 4.348/68.25/9.690 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 8.38/13.43/1.912 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.4% / 60.2% / 42.4%, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 66 / 41 / 29 times respectively.
Risk tip: the promotion of heterojunction cell technology is less than expected, and the downstream photovoltaic demand is less than expected.
