\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 958 Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) )
The allotment boots have landed, and the valuation has long-term investment value
On April 18, the company announced the share allotment prospectus, which proposed to allot 2.8 shares at the price of 8.46 yuan / share, with the share allotment raising not exceeding 16.8 billion yuan. April 20 was the registration date of A-share equity, and the trading of the company's shares was suspended from April 21 to April 28. The company's share allotment is in line with our expectations. Affected by the capital behavior, the share allotment is approaching and the share price is under pressure in the short term. In the medium and long term, the share allotment is conducive to the securities companies to increase their capital and enhance the company's long-term competitive advantage. The company takes the lead in the transformation of wealth management and has obvious competitive advantages in public fund-raising management. In 2021, the profit contribution of big wealth management business line reached 54%, bringing long-term growth and valuation flexibility. At the same time, the security of on balance sheet and off balance sheet assets is high, and the annual profit growth is expected to be better than the industry average. The company was restructured and revalued, giving 20 times PE to the big wealth line in 2022 and 0.6 times PB to the net assets of non wealth line. The revaluation value of the company was 90.4 billion, 32% higher than the current market value. The valuation has long-term investment value. Maintain the company's expected net profit of 6.1/73/8.9 billion from 2022 to 2024 (excluding allotment), and the current share price corresponds to pb1.5 billion in 202201 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The thickening of capital is conducive to the improvement of the company's competitiveness, and the landing of boots brings layout opportunities
(1) the company's share allotment price is 8.46 yuan, which is 22% lower than the closing price of A-Shares on April 15 and 121% higher than the closing price of H shares. Considering only the A-share allotment, it is estimated that the company's A-share allotment will raise 13.7 billion yuan at a subscription rate of 97%. Calculated by the end of 2021, the company's net assets will reach 77.8 billion yuan. The amount of capital is an important basis for the competition of Chinese securities companies. The thickening of capital is conducive to the improvement of the comprehensive and business ranking of securities companies and the pilot application of innovative business. The fund-raising of the company is mainly invested in investment banking, wealth management, capital intermediary and other businesses with good growth. The thickening of capital will enhance the company's long-term competitive advantage. (2) The landing of the company's allotment boots will bring a better layout time point, the subsequent refinancing concerns will be eliminated, and the increase of capital is expected to lead to the expansion of profit growth.
The big wealth management business has distinctive advantages, with sufficient provision for stock pledge and high asset security
(1) in 2021, the total profit contribution of the company's big wealth management line (Dongzheng asset management + huitianfu + consignment) is expected to be 2.9 billion, with a year-on-year + 50% and a profit contribution of 54%. Since the beginning of 2022, the net value of partial equity funds has fallen sharply, which has brought short-term suppression to the profit growth of the company's big wealth business line. We expect that the net profit of the company's big wealth management business line will be flat year-on-year in 2022, and the long-term growth is still strong. The high contribution of the profit of the big wealth management line is expected to drive the valuation elasticity of the company. (2) The provision for stock pledge of the company is sufficient, the assets on the balance sheet are mainly measured by fair value, and the foreign capital management on the balance sheet is mainly public offering business. The overall asset transparency is high and the asset security is strong.
Risk warning: the sharp fluctuation of stock market causes the uncertainty of brokerage profit; The scale expansion of public offering was less than expected.
