\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) )
Event:
Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) disclosed the first quarterly report, realizing an operating revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 285%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360%, a deduction of non net profit of 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 368%, and a net cash flow from operating activities of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 484%.
Comments:
HPV vaccines, reagents and active raw materials were rapidly released in large quantities, and the performance exceeded expectations
The company’s revenue growth mainly comes from HPV vaccine, testing reagents and active raw materials. Among them, 86 batches of HPV vaccine Q1 were issued, with a year-on-year increase of 325%. The expected revenue is 2.2 billion yuan and the net profit is expected to contribute about 1 billion yuan. At present, the company’s vaccine channels effectively cover more than 2500 district and county centers for Disease Control and prevention in China, with more than 18000 vaccination sites under its jurisdiction. In the future, with the improvement of HPV vaccination awareness and policy support, it is expected to maintain rapid growth.
In the field of in vitro diagnosis, as a supplement to nucleic acid testing, the company’s covid-19 antigen kit has been certified in many countries and obtained the registration certificate issued by CFDA on March 14. It is expected that the daily output will reach 3 million copies by the end of April. With the sharp increase in global demand for covid-19 antigen kit, it is expected to bring new increment to the company.
Who’s 1 / 2 needle method recommendation is not expected to affect the medium and short-term immunization procedures
The HPV vaccination rate of teenagers in the world is less than 15%. Low and middle-income countries have been in short supply for a long time, and the effectiveness of HPV vaccine in the prevention of cervical cancer is relatively clear. Who proposes to replace the current 2 / 3 vaccination procedure with 1 / 2 vaccination. We expect that the main purpose is to improve the coverage of low – and middle-income countries. However, the clinical end point of who related literature is to observe persistent infection, which is not the incidence of precancerous lesions in formal clinical research. Therefore, we expect that if the clinical end point is changed, it will require more than 5 years of clinical verification, and the medium and short term will not affect the immunization procedure.
Profit forecast and investment rating
Taking into account the continuous volume of HPV vaccine and the new increment brought about by the increase in the demand for antigen reagents and active raw materials, as well as the increase in gross profit margin and the decrease in expense rate brought about by the expansion of scale, we expect that the revenue in 22-24 years will be 10.3/14/15.8 billion yuan (original value is 9.1/123/15.6 billion yuan), the net profit will be 3.9/55/66 billion yuan (original value is 3.2/46/62 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 96% / 40% / 21%, and the EPS will be 6.5/9.0/10.9 yuan / share respectively, PE corresponding to the current share price is 42 / 30 / 25 times, and there are abundant subsequent R & D pipelines, which is expected to open up long-term growth space and buy rating.
Risk tips
Epidemic impact risk, HPV vaccination is less than expected, R & D progress is less than expected, and policy and regulatory risks
