\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Revenue and net profit increased significantly, and the net interest rate improved slightly. In 2021, the annual revenue was 31.997 billion yuan (+ 48.2%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.957 billion yuan (+ 51.4%). The gross profit margin and net profit margin were 17.4% (- 2.0%) and 9.3% (- 0.2%). The decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the decline in the price of finished paper and the rise in the price of bulk raw materials and energy. The rates of sales, management and financial expenses are 0.4% (- 0.1%), 4.2% (- 0.7%) and 1.8% (- 0.7%). In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 8.282 billion yuan (+ 39.2%) and 189 million yuan (- 67.0%). Q4's single quarter net interest rate was only 2.3%, mainly due to the sharp rise in energy costs in the fourth quarter.
The cost pressure may improve gradually, and the profit per ton of paper is expected to be repaired. In 2021, the income of uncoated cultural paper, dissolved pulp, coated paper, kraft liner paper, chemical mechanical pulp, coated base paper and household paper was 8671 million yuan, 3255 million yuan, 40.99 million yuan, 98.70 million yuan, 18.27 million yuan, 16.10 million yuan and 857 million yuan respectively, of which the growth rate of dissolved pulp, boxboard paper and coated base paper was higher year-on-year, 49.5%, 136.6% and 95.0% respectively. The price of various kinds of paper has experienced a decline for nearly a year and rebounded to the bottom in 2021q4. In addition, the company has raised the product price for many times this year to hedge the cost impact. The downward trend of profit per ton of paper has been reversed and is expected to be gradually repaired with the stabilization and recovery of the economy.
The integration of forestry, pulp and paper has been steadily promoted, and the comprehensive competitiveness has been continuously improved. Among Guangxi projects, 550000 T / a cultural paper project, 120000 T / a domestic paper project, 800000 T / a chemical wood pulp project and 200000 t / a chemical mechanical pulp project will be completed and put into operation before the end of 2021. At present, the base in Laos has formed a pulp and paper production capacity of 1.5 million tons, and the construction of fast-growing forest is also under key promotion. It is expected to add about 10000 hectares of planting area every year, and increase planting efforts in the future. In addition, the company has actively explored and developed high value-added special paper products, developed and mass produced high gram weight double-sided cow card, white anti sticking base paper, yellow anti sticking base paper, photo base paper and other products. On the whole, the company has achieved scale effect, strengthened the control ability of raw materials and added value of products through scale expansion, forest pulp paper integration, high value-added product research and development and other measures, and its comprehensive competitiveness has been continuously strengthened.
Risk tip: the downward range of each paper product price is higher than expected; The rise of raw materials and energy costs exceeded expectations, and the progress of Forest Pulp paper integration and capacity expansion was less than expected.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.2/38/4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0% / 9% / 6%; EPS is 1.18/1.42/1.64 yuan, and the corresponding valuation of the current stock price is 10 / 9 / 7 times PE. The company's capacity expansion and the deepening of Forest Pulp paper integration are expected to further strengthen the company's scale effect and cost advantage. Maintain a reasonable valuation range of 14.88-15.72 yuan, corresponding to a relative valuation of 10.5-11.1 times PE in 2023, and maintain the "buy" rating.
