\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 154 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) )
The company released its 2021 annual report. The annual revenue and net profit reached 4.45 billion and 460 million, with a year-on-year increase of 17.5% and 26.7% respectively, of which Q4 revenue and net profit were 1.48 billion and 97 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% and 23% respectively, and the deduction profit increased by 3.95%. The annual report plans to pay another 10 dividends of 2.7 yuan on the basis of dividends in the third quarter.
By brand: 21h2 is affected by epidemic situation, flood, base number and other aspects, and the growth rate is weaker than that in the first half of the year. 1) Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) : in 2021, the revenue reached 1.61 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26%, of which 21h2 increased by 7%, 229 / 567 direct / franchise stores respectively, with a year-on-year net increase of – 1 / 18, and the area of a single store increased by 0.4% to 208 square meters. 2) Haggis: in 2021, the revenue was 1.45 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 18%, of which 21h2 decreased by 1%. There were 301 / 100 direct / franchise stores respectively, with a year-on-year net increase of 13 / – 5, and the area of a single store increased by 3.8% to 121 square meters. 3) BAONIAO: in 2021, the revenue reached 837 million, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% (mainly due to the high base caused by the income of epidemic prevention materials last year), of which 21h2 increased by 0.9%. 4) Kemiche & lefeiye & TB: in 2021, the revenue reached 380 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7%, of which 21h2 decreased by 13.1%. From the perspective of different channels: the growth of franchise channels is fast. In 2021, the revenue from online / direct / franchise / group purchase channels was RMB 680 / 17.6 / 8.1 / 8.6 / 220 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13% / 14% / 38% / 7%, including 752 / 924 direct and franchise stores respectively, with a year-on-year net increase of 6 / 37.
Profitability: net profit margin increased slightly, mainly driven by gross profit margin and effective tax rate. 1) Gross profit margin: increased by 0.5pcts year-on-year to 63.9%. In terms of splitting, the gross profit margin of online / direct / franchise / group purchase was 65.4% / 78.1% / 65.3% / 45.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% / 3.1% / – 0.7% / – 2.4%. The increase of direct gross profit margin was mainly driven by the increase of haggis proportion. 2) Expense rate: the sales expense rate / management expense rate was 39.6% / 7.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0 / 0.4pcts. The increase in management expense rate was mainly due to the company’s strengthening of incentives and the implementation of profit growth awards, as well as the low base of social security relief in 2020. 3) Effective tax rate: in 2021, the effective tax rate was 22.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8pcts. 4) Net interest rate: in 2021, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company increased by 0.8pcts to 10.4% year-on-year.
Looking forward to the whole year, we expect that from January to February, the performance of Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) main brand and hajis brand is better than that of their peers. In March, affected by the epidemic, it is expected to have a great impact on the retail of hajis brand. In addition, the company received more than 47 million yuan of government subsidy in Q1, which is much higher than that in the same period last year. We expect that the revenue and profit growth of Q1 are still better than that of their peers. In the medium and long term, when the main brand is still young, the category of sports suits is worth looking forward to; Haggis has sufficient space to open stores, and can make up for the gap in low-level cities through franchise stores in the future. In addition, with the increase of the proportion of haggis brand revenue with stronger profitability, the company’s net profit margin has upward flexibility.
According to the annual report and the impact of the epidemic since March, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and predicted that the earnings per share for 20222024 were 0.38, 0.48 and 0.59 yuan respectively (compared with 0.44 and 0.57 yuan in 20222023). With reference to comparable companies, we gave the company 13 times PE valuation in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 4.94 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is repeated, the economy slows down, the epidemic trend changes, the main brand is younger and the process of product differentiation is lower than expected
