\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Event: on April 18, 2022, the company announced the results of the first quarter of 2022. During the performance period, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 73.524 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 129.6%. The company’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were above the center of early performance forecast.
Despite the disturbance of the epidemic, 22q1 maintained rapid growth. The company’s 22q1 achieved a good start. 1) by product: 22q1 cheese / liquid milk / trade revenue was 1.042/0.89/153 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 49.6% / – 16.7% / + 4.1% respectively. Among them, the growth rate of cheese revenue in a single quarter continued to increase from 21q3, and the growth rate of cheese revenue in 21q3 / 21q4 was + 38.6% / + 44.0% respectively. The decline in liquid milk income is mainly due to the fact that liquid milk is mainly sold in Jilin, which has been impacted by the epidemic. Although the epidemic situation in Jilin and Shanghai, the main locations of the company’s factories, had been repeated in the first quarter of this year, the company actively took measures to reduce the impact of the epidemic situation: in terms of production, the company arranged workers to work on site; In terms of sales, one is to increase online sales, and the other is to actively promote community group buying. 2) In terms of regions, the revenue of 22q1 North / middle / South District was 636 / 373 / 275 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 44% / + 10% / + 63% respectively. As of March 31, 2022, the number of dealers in North / middle / South District was 2606 / 1661 / 1423 respectively, with a total of 5690, a change of + 162 / + 51 / + 114 respectively compared with the end of the previous year, with a total net increase of 327.
The proportion of liquid milk income with low gross profit margin decreased, and the overall gross profit margin improved. 1) Gross profit margin: the company’s 22q1 gross profit margin was 38.82%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.14pcts, mainly due to the decline in liquid milk revenue with low gross profit margin in the first quarter and the continuous increase in the proportion of cheese with high gross profit margin. Despite the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter and the increase in freight, the company hedged the impact of the increase in freight through the upgrading of product structure and the improvement of scale effect. 2) Sales expense ratio: the company’s 22q1 sales expense ratio was 24.81%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.18pcts, mainly due to the company’s improvement of expense investment efficiency and scale effect. 3) Management expense ratio: the company’s 22q1 management expense ratio was 6.72%, year-on-year -0.11pcts. 4) Overall, the company’s net profit margin on 22q1 sales was 6.31%, up + 2.07pcts year-on-year. The net profit margin in a single quarter was a high level in recent three years, second only to 7.64% in 21q2.
Products continue to innovate and the leading position is further consolidated. The epidemic situation has strengthened the consumer consumption scene at home. In order to meet the diversified needs of consumers, the company launched an upgraded version of normal temperature cheese stick “small cheese cow cheese stick” and gold upgraded cheese slice in 22q1, with cheese content as high as 55% and 60% respectively. The company also launched cheese slices in March, which is one of the main new products this year. With the company’s marketing and publicity actions, it is expected to provide a certain revenue contribution this year. The overall cheese market share of the company increased from 30% at the end of 21 to 34% at the end of March this year; The market share of cheese sticks increased from 36% at the end of 21 to 39% at the end of March this year, and the leading position was further consolidated.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we maintain that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 22-24 years is expected to be RMB 429 / 827 / 1166 million respectively, equivalent to EPS of RMB 0.83/1.60/2.26 in 202224 respectively, and the current share price corresponds to PE of 41x / 21x / 15x in 202224 respectively. Considering that the leading position of the company’s C-end cheese is still stable and the growth space of the cheese industry is large, we maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the release of production capacity is less than expected; The growth of new products is lower than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; Food safety.
