\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 048 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) )
The company’s performance increased by 17% year-on-year in 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 285.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 26.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%; The basic earnings per share is 2.29 yuan. The decline in profits was mainly due to the decline in the gross profit margin carried forward. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin decreased by 5.8 percentage points year-on-year to 26.8%, and the after tax gross profit margin decreased by 3.7 percentage points year-on-year to 21.3%. By the end of 2021, the company’s advances received and contract liabilities totaled 416.87 billion yuan, covering 1.6 times of the annual development business settlement income, and the growth of revenue was guaranteed.
The annual sales increased by 6.4% and the contribution of core 38 cities reached 78%. In 2021, the company achieved a contract amount of 534.93 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% at the same time; The contracted area is 33.33 million m3, the same as 2.2%; The average sales price was 160494 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. According to Kerui’s ranking, the company’s annual sales ranked fourth in the industry, one place higher than last year, and its sales growth ranked 15th among the top 40 real estate enterprises. The company’s urban intensive cultivation has achieved remarkable results. 38 core cities contributed 78% of sales, accounting for 53% of sales in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta. 17 cities signed more than 10 billion contracts, an increase of 2 year-on-year. In 2021, the return rate of the company reached 93.8%, slightly increased by 0.2pct compared with 2020, and the cash flow remained healthy.
Throughout the year, the land acquisition was cautious, and the layout in the strong third line was appropriately increased. In 2021, the land acquisition amount of the company was 185.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.1% at the same time; The land acquisition area was 27.22 million square meters, a decrease of 14.5%. The expansion of the whole year was cautious, especially in the second half of the year. With the decline of market heat, the company intended to control the land acquisition speed. The land acquisition amount / sales amount and land acquisition area / sales area were 34.7% and 81.7% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.1pct and 11.8pct. In 2021, the land acquisition equity ratio increased by 7 percentage points to 72% year-on-year, which is conducive to better control the project quality and improve the brand premium. In 2021, while concentrating on the first and second tier, the company also appropriately increased the layout of the strong third tier. In 2021, the land acquisition amount of the first, second and third tier accounted for 11.2%, 45.3% and 43.5% respectively, and the proportion of the first and second tier decreased by 15pct compared with last year; In terms of regional distribution, the expansion amount of the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta accounted for 54% of the new resources, up 7pct from last year.
Financial stability, three red lines to maintain the green file. By the end of 2021, the company’s interest bearing liabilities were 338.2 billion yuan, an increase of 13.9% at the same time; Monetary capital was 171.38 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4%. The company’s asset liability ratio after deducting advance receipts was 69.2%, down 0.7 percentage points; The net debt ratio was 55.1%, down 1.5 percentage points; The cash short-term debt ratio was 2.3 times, an increase of 0.5 times, and the short-term solvency was strong. The comprehensive cost of interest bearing liabilities was 4.46%, down 0.31 percentage points, with significant financing advantages.
Investment suggestion: Although the decline of short-term gross profit margin has led to performance pressure, the accelerated settlement of low gross profit projects obtained in the early stage is more conducive to the later gross profit margin repair. Considering the company’s financial stability, stable sales growth, active land acquisition despite the current overall decline in investment in the industry, and the regulators encourage and support high-quality real estate enterprises to conduct acquisition and acquisition, we believe that the company is expected to maintain the sales scale, improve the market share, improve the equity ratio and repair the gross profit margin of land acquisition in the future, so as to drive the net profit back to the growth track. We predict that the operating revenue of the company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 328.16/368.94/407.96 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 274.8/289.6/31.57 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding diluted EPS will be 2.3/2.42/2.64 yuan / share. Dynamic pe8x in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the gross profit margin decreased more than expected; The speed and implementation of industrial policies are lower than expected; The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
