Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908)
Key investment points
Performance summary: the company issued the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 920 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, of which the revenue growth of Q1-Q4 was 25.7% / 58.4% / 36.4% / 50.7% respectively, and the quarterly growth rate maintained a bright trend. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 78.61 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 717, which turned around the loss year-on-year, and the overall performance was in line with expectations.
Steady profitability and continuous optimization of cost control. The gross profit margin of the company was 24.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6pp. The decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials and the transfer of freight into cost, which remained stable as a whole. The gross profit margins of tents and equipment, clothing, shoes and accessories are 22.9% (- 0.1pp), 34.7% (- 4pp) and 35.9% (+ 2PP) respectively; In terms of domestic and export sales, the overseas gross profit margin was 20.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5pp, and the domestic gross profit margin was 33.9%, a year-on-year increase of 1pp. The increase in the proportion of domestic sales has also driven the overall gross profit margin to a certain extent. In terms of expense rate, the total rate in 21 years was 15.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7pp, of which the sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate were 5.8% (-0.4pp) /6.1% (-0.3pp) /2.8% (-0.6pp) /0.9% (-0.5pp) respectively. The corporate income tax rate in 21 years was 15.8% (- 5.7pp). Under the influence of various factors, the net profit margin of the company in 21 years was 8.5%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4pp, and the profitability was stable.
The strong demand for camping drives the large-scale performance of export and animal husbandry. In 21 years, the company’s export sales and domestic sales contributed 620 million yuan (+ 28%) and 310 million yuan (+ 90%) respectively. Export sales maintained rapid growth for two consecutive years, and domestic sales increased rapidly. In terms of domestic sales split, Da mu / Xiao Mu achieved revenue of 220 million yuan (+ 156%) and 90 million yuan (+ 15%) respectively. The bright growth of domestic and foreign sales benefited from the strong demand for camping. In terms of products, the company’s revenue from tents and equipment / clothing, shoes / accessories and other products in 21 years was 770 million yuan (+ 43.8%) / 100 million yuan (+ 13.7%) / 50 million yuan (+ 228.5%).
Multi channel efforts to improve the efficiency of physical stores. In 2021, the company’s domestic online / offline channel revenue was 110 million yuan (+ 126.7%) and 200 million yuan (+ 74.5%) respectively, accounting for 35.5% / 64.6% respectively. In offline channels, distribution group purchase contributed 110 million yuan (+ 193%), and stores contributed 90 million yuan, with multiple channels blooming. In terms of store channels, the number of direct / franchise stores at the end of the year was 30 (+ 6) / 196 (- 51), and the direct / franchise revenue was 30 million yuan (+ 21.8%) / 60 million yuan (+ 11.8%) respectively. The channel efficiency was improved.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.81 yuan, 2.48 yuan and 3.19 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 30 times, 22 times and 17 times respectively. Considering that the demand for exposed businesses in China has continued to be strong in recent years and the company has certain competitive barriers in this field, with reference to the valuation of comparable companies, the company is given a valuation of 35 times in 22 years, the target price is 63.4 yuan, and the “hold” rating is given for the first time.
Risk warning: the risk that the industry demand is less than expected; Risks of intensified industry competition; Risk of exchange rate fluctuations.
