\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Event:
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022, and achieved a total revenue of 1.286 billion yuan during the reporting period, a year-on-year increase of + 35.24%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 74 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 129.55%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 118.13%; The basic EPS is 0.14 yuan, and the company’s performance slightly exceeds the performance forecast center.
Comments:
The high growth of Q1 cheese business helped the revenue get off to a good start
The Q1 revenue of the company is not light in the off-season and has made a good start. By category, the revenue of cheese / liquid milk / trade was 1.042/0.89/153 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 49.59% / – 16.67% / + 4.11%. The cheese sector continued to grow at a high rate, and the liquid milk gradually withdrew from the company’s main business, and the decline in growth rate was in line with expectations. On the channel side, the company Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) made synchronous efforts, and the revenue of direct channels was 205 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 119.18%. By the end of Q1 2022, the company had 5690 distributors, with a year-on-year increase of + 95%. In terms of sub regions, the North / middle / South regions were + 74% / + 108% / + 130% respectively. The company continued to promote channel sinking and strengthen the penetration of the middle and South regions.
Category upgrading drives the growth of gross profit margin, the investment of expenses slows down, and the profitability rebounds
The company’s Q1 gross profit margin was 38.82%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.14 percentage points. The high-end core cheese stick category drove the steady increase of gross profit margin. On the expense side, the sales / management expense ratio is – 4.54 / – 1.56 percentage points month on month. As the Spring Festival advertising is ahead of q42022q1, the sales expense ratio returns to normal.
From cheese stick faucet to full category cheese faucet
The company’s cheese stick business continues to maintain the strategy of “making fine and low-temperature, making wide and normal temperature”. The low-temperature cheese stick maintains high-end iteration, and the normal temperature cheese stick promotes the offline urban layout. The company launched a number of products for families and catering channels in Q1, and is expected to develop from the leader of cheese stick category to the leader of whole category cheese.
Profit forecast
Maintain the company’s profit forecast from 2022 to 2024, and the expected revenue in the next three years is RMB 63.73/85.19/10.370 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 42.32% / 33.66% / 21.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 455 / 818 / 1105 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 194.75% / 79.76% / 34.98%; The corresponding EPS is 0.88/1.59/2.14 yuan respectively; Corresponding to the current share price, PE is 39 / 22 / 16 times respectively. The company is still in a period of rapid growth. With the increase of market share, the net interest rate under the scale effect will increase year by year. The compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in the next three years will be 56%. According to the company’s peg valuation of 1 in 2022, the target price is 49.28 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating
Risk tips
The risk that the price of raw materials and packaging materials rises, the new products at room temperature are less than expected, and the epidemic situation affects the company’s shipment progress.
