\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 244 Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) )
Focus on Hangzhou and deeply cultivate Zhejiang, with steady growth in business performance. The company insists on focusing on Hangzhou and deeply ploughing Zhejiang, and takes the development mode of regional deep ploughing to match the national layout of real estate enterprises. 3q21, the company’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 89% and 49% year-on-year respectively. Although the gross profit margin declined due to the general trend of the industry, the company has outstanding advantages in management and product standardization, and the gross profit margin is still 4.17pct higher than the industry average.
The quality brand is deeply recognized, and the sales scale continues to grow. The company’s full caliber sales amount in 2021 was 169.1 billion yuan, ranking 22nd in the industry; The annual sales increased by + 24% year-on-year, by + 60.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and by – 0.6% year-on-year in the second half of the year. The growth rate in the first and second half of the year was much higher than the industry average; The sales target achievement rate is 113%, which is one of the five top 30 real estate enterprises that have achieved the sales target; The effect of deep cultivation in Hangzhou is remarkable, the products are deeply recognized by customers, and the market share continues to increase. In 2021, the full caliber sales amount in Hangzhou was 106.8 billion yuan, with a market share of 14.6%, ranking first in the sales list of Hangzhou for four consecutive years.
Actively take land to expand soil storage and lay out high-quality areas in the market. The land acquisition amount of the company’s equity continued to grow, exceeding 40 billion yuan for two consecutive years, which is a rare real estate enterprise with a year-on-year increase in land acquisition amount in 2021; Seize the opportunity of the land market and obtain high profit space projects. In 2021, the total amount of land acquisition reached 74.1 billion yuan, of which Hangzhou invested 29.9 billion yuan, ranking first in the list of land acquisition in Hangzhou. Heavy warehouse base. As of 1h21, the company’s sales value is about 278 billion yuan, 67% of which is located in Hangzhou. Hangzhou has good urban fundamentals and large real estate market capacity. It has continued to destock in recent years. At present, the destocking cycle of inventory on sale is only 1.6 months, and sales are expected to take the lead in stabilizing and warming up, which will directly benefit the company’s sales growth.
The financial structure is safe and stable, and the financing capacity is comparable to that of state-owned enterprises. As of 1h21, the asset liability ratio of the company excluding advance receipts was 69.13%, the net debt ratio was 91.24%, and the cash short debt ratio was 1.62, maintaining the “green” of three red lines. The interest bearing debt structure is reasonable, short-term debt accounts for 24%, and the debt repayment pressure is small; The sources of channels are simple and clear, 73% of which are bank loans, without trust financing and overseas financing. The financing cost continued to decline, and the comprehensive financing cost of 1h21 was 4.9%. The coupon rate of three new bonds issued since 2022 was not higher than 4%, and the financing capacity was comparable to that of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises.
Investment advice
Considering the contrarian growth of the company’s sales investment, strong growth momentum and good market fundamentals in key regions, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 2.653 billion yuan, 3.953 billion yuan and 5.187 billion yuan respectively. We give the company a PE of 8.0x in 2022, with a corresponding target price of 10.16 yuan / share, and give a “buy” rating for the first time. Risk statement
Implementation of epidemic delay policy and market recovery; The layout area is relatively single; Partner’s debt default.
