\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 048 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) )
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 285 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The weighted roe / gross profit margin / net profit margin of the company were 14.39% / 26.80% / 13.05% respectively, down 2.70pp/5.79pp/3.42pp respectively compared with the same period last year.
Urban intensive cultivation promotes steady growth of sales and reasonably supplements high-quality resources. In 2021, the company achieved a contract amount of 543.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; The contracted area was 33.33 million m3, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. The sales contribution of the company's 38 core cities reached 78%, and 17 cities with 10 billion contracts were signed in a single city, an increase of 2 compared with 2020. In 2021, affected by the fluctuation of the land market, the company expanded 145 new projects, with land acquisition of 27.22 million m3 and land acquisition amount of 185.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15% and 21% respectively. The average land acquisition price was 6821 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Adhering to the strategy of "core city + Urban Agglomeration", the company focuses on land acquisition in high-quality areas with high sales contribution. In 2021, the amount of land acquisition in the middle Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta accounted for 54%, an increase of 7pp over last year.
We continued to develop diversified businesses, and the scale of the real estate ecological industry continued to expand. In terms of property services, by the end of 2021, the company had a management area of 465 million m3, a contract area of 656 million m3 and 2428 contract management projects. The annual operating revenue was 10.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.2%; In terms of business, the company has opened 35 shopping centers with an opening area of 2.475 million square meters; In terms of hotel management, the company has opened 20 hotels and conference centers, with nearly 5000 guest rooms; In addition, in terms of real estate finance, the company's fund management scale exceeded 170 billion yuan, and SINOSURE fund and poly capital won the "top 10 of China's most powerful real estate funds in 2021".
The asset liability structure is healthy and the cash flow is abundant. According to our calculation, the "three red lines" of the company are in line with the green file, in which the asset liability ratio after deducting the accounts received in advance is 69.19%, the net liability ratio is 55.07%, the asset liability structure is stable and reasonable, the monetary capital is 171.38 billion yuan, 2.65 times of the company's short-term liabilities, and the solvency is strong. During the reporting period, the company achieved sales return of 502 billion yuan, with a return rate of 93.8%, ranking high in the industry, and maintained positive cash flow from operating activities for four consecutive years. The company seized low-cost resources and issued corporate bonds of 8.69 billion yuan and medium-term notes of 10 billion yuan in 2021. At the end of the period, the company's comprehensive financing cost was about 4.46%, a year-on-year decrease of 31 basis points, and continued to maintain the leading edge in the industry.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the compound growth rate of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.9%. Considering the company's low financing cost, high land acquisition intensity and rapid development of diversified businesses, the company will be given a PE of 10 times the company's performance in 2022, with a target price of 24.10 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: completion delivery is lower than expected, land acquisition and sales collection are lower than expected, real estate regulation risk, etc.
