\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 612 Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) )
Key investment points
Event: Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) released the annual report of 2021. During the reporting period, the company realized an operating revenue of 9.458 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61.65%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 620 million, a year-on-year increase of 189.64%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 614 million, a year-on-year increase of 193.47%; In Q4 of 21 years, the operating revenue was 2.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.45%, a month on month increase of 6.25%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 146 million, a year-on-year increase of 50.64% and a month on month decrease of 19.74%.
During the reporting period, the volume and price of the main prebaked anode increased simultaneously, which promoted the substantial growth of the company’s performance.
From the perspective of quantity, during the reporting period, the company’s anode output prebaked anode output was 2074800 tons (YoY + 9.14%), of which OEM output was 6100 tons (YoY + 1.67%); The sales volume of prebaked anode is 2024900 tons (YoY + 5.00%), including 643100 tons (YoY + 11.55%) for export and 13818000 tons (YoY + 2.21%) for China.
From the perspective of price, the price of the company’s main prebaked anode products increased significantly during the reporting period. According to the data of Baichuan, the average price of prebaked anode in 2021 is 455126 yuan / ton (YoY + 52.32%). In 2021, the price of anode products increased significantly, pushing up the company’s revenue.
From the perspective of cost, the production cost per ton of anode of the company during the reporting period was 328104 yuan / ton (YoY + 45.26%). In 2021, the main raw materials of the company’s products, petroleum coke and coal asphalt, increased by 76.95% and 88.90% respectively. The rapid rise of main raw materials promoted the rise of the company’s production cost.
From the perspective of gross profit per ton, the company’s gross profit per ton of anode was 729.49 yuan / ton (YoY + 62.2%) during the reporting period. According to our calculation, the industry’s gross profit per ton was 152.45 yuan / ton (YoY + 39.25%) in 2021. The company’s leading competitive advantage was outstanding, and the gross profit per ton still significantly exceeded the industry average level.
The company’s expense rate decreased during the reporting period. During the reporting period, the effect of the company’s expense control during the period was prominent. The expense rate of the company during the period of 21 years was 5.59%, a decrease of 2.17 PCTs compared with the same period last year. Specifically, 1) the sales expense rate decreased by 0.35 PCTs from 0.86% → 0.51%, mainly due to the same decrease of 33.27% and 93.77% in sales commission and freight respectively; 2) The rate of administrative expenses decreased by 0.58pcts from 3.97% to 3.39%, mainly due to the increase of employee salary in order to achieve the expected goal, but the rate of administrative expenses decreased due to the increase of sales revenue; 3) The financial expense ratio decreased by 1.27pcts from 2.93% to 1.69%, mainly because the exchange loss of the company in the current period decreased by 45.13% year-on-year, and the financial expense of the company decreased significantly; 4) The R & D expense ratio decreased by 0.09pcts from 1.55% to 1.46%. During the reporting period, the company’s new projects were fully promoted, and the price of raw materials increased, and the R & D expense increased by 52.54% to 138 million yuan.
During the reporting period, new projects were put into operation and the growth logic was continuously fulfilled. During the reporting period, the 900000 ton carbon material phase I Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) ton project of sotong Yunnan Aluminum was put into operation at the end of 2021. By the end of 2021, the company had a total pre baked anode capacity of 2.52 million tons and a corresponding equity capacity of 1.87 million tons; Sotong Yunnan Aluminum phase II 300000 ton project was started at the end of 2021, or will be completed and put into operation at the end of 22. The addition of sotong Yuheng 350000 ton anode project is under preparation. It is expected that the company’s anode capacity will reach 3.17 million tons by the end of 2022, with the corresponding equity capacity of 2.27 million tons, realizing the rapid growth of anode capacity; Under the background of China’s “North aluminum moving to the South” and the upgrading of the supporting anode capacity of foreign aluminum plants, the company continues to promote the layout in the northwest, southwest, Shandong and overseas with the help of the comprehensive competitive advantages of industry leaders. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is expected to realize the annual production capacity of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of pre baked anode, and the total production capacity will reach 5 million tons in 2025. The growth logic is expected to continue to be realized.
Take “green electricity + new carbon materials” as the development direction, layout lithium battery cathode materials and expand incremental space. In April 22, the company announced that it planned to invest 720 million yuan to build the first phase of the 50000 ton project of the 200000 ton / a lithium ion battery anode material integration project. The carbon anode material has strong connections and similarities with the company’s main prebaked anode in terms of raw materials, production equipment and process. The company may give full play to its technical advantages, experience advantages, centralized procurement and global procurement advantages, It can optimize the project construction and operation cost of the project and improve the production efficiency. Driven by the continuous growth of the new energy vehicle industry, the lithium battery cathode material industry may open up new growth space for the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company is the leader in China’s prebaked anode industry, with outstanding comprehensive competitive advantages and continuous realization of the Growth Logic of its main business. At the same time, the company’s layout of lithium battery cathode materials is expected to open up new growth space for the company. We estimate that the company’s pre baked anode output in 22-24 years is 262 / 322 / 3.82 million tons respectively, and the pre baked anode sales price is adjusted to 6000 / 6100 / 6200 yuan / ton, which corresponds to the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is 769 / 929 / 1108 million respectively (745 / 976 million is estimated in the previous 22-23 years), and the PE in 22-24 years is 12 / 10 / 8 respectively, maintaining the company’s “buy” rating.
Risk prompt event: raw material price fluctuation risk; Price fluctuation risk of prebaked anode; Repeated epidemic and other risks; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; The demand for prebaked anode in electrolytic aluminum industry is lower than expected risk; The project construction progress is less than the expected risk, etc.
