\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 233 Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, it achieved an operating revenue of 470 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117.8%. Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 120 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 57.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 50 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%.
The annual performance was high, the income and profit reached a new high, the raw materials of lik rose, and the gross profit margin remained stable. In 2021, the annual operating revenue was 470 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117.8%, of which the large-diameter silicon material business realized a revenue of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148.8%. In 2021, the price of raw material polysilicon rose sharply. Relying on its excellent cost control ability, the company adjusted the product price and product structure accordingly, and maintained the annual gross profit margin at 64.1%. In terms of expense rate, the annual sales expense rate was 1%, the management expense rate was 7.4%, the financial expense rate was - 2.3%, the total R & D investment was 34.971 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.4%, and the R & D expense rate reached 7.4%.
Large size monocrystalline silicon materials have increased, and silicon parts have won small batch orders. In 2021, the sales volume of semiconductor market increased by 26.2% year-on-year, reaching US $556 billion. Benefiting from the high prosperity of downstream, the company's silicon material business achieved high growth. Monocrystalline silicon materials of 16 inches and above achieved a revenue of 120 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 175.7%, accounting for 26.3%. The process of large-size monocrystalline silicon materials is relatively difficult. With its own technical advantages, the company has achieved a gross profit margin of 75.8% (+ 1pp). In terms of silicon parts, the company actively explores the Chinese market and cooperates with Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) and Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) to cover most specifications of silicon parts. At present, the company has received sample delivery and evaluation opportunities from several 12 inch wafer manufacturers and received small batch orders. In addition, the company also carried out technical research on advanced technology, and continued to invest in the research and development of 22 inch single crystal and 22-26 inch silicon parts to further improve the yield.
Light doped and low defect silicon wafers are progressing smoothly, and the yield level is close to that of mainstream manufacturers. In 2021, the company opened the silicon wafer production line with a monthly output of 50000 pieces, and the actual output is 8000 pieces / month. The 8-inch test silicon wafer has passed the evaluation and certification of some Chinese customers, while the 8-inch light doped low defect high resistance silicon wafer is in the evaluation process of the client. In addition, the company has completed the docking of 8-inch silicon wafers with high technical difficulty at the mainstream client in China, and started the sample delivery evaluation at the same time. At present, the technical index data of the company's silicon wafer is stable and improving steadily, and most of the indexes and yield have reached or basically close to the level of mainstream large manufacturers.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.98 yuan, 2.4 yuan and 2.88 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 38 times, 31 times and 26 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the process of semiconductor localization is not as expected; The expansion of downstream etching equipment factory and wafer factory is less than expected; The certification progress of silicon electrode parts and lightly doped silicon wafers is less than expected; Exchange losses arising from exchange rate fluctuations; Business risks that may be caused by dispersed equity and no actual controller.
