\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Core conclusion
Event: the company issued a performance announcement for the first quarter of 2022. In 22q1, the operating revenue was 1.286 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.24%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 74 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 129.55%, and the non net profit deducted was 69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 118.13%.
Cheese maintained high growth, short-term epidemic disturbance, considering the drag of equity incentive expenses, the actual operating profit was in line with expectations. In terms of products, the cheese revenue in the first quarter was 1.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 49.50%, the liquid milk revenue was 89 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 11%, and the trade revenue was 153 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.08%. Cheese revenue maintained a high growth. According to the split calculation, the year-on-year growth rate of cheese sticks was about 60%, and the year-on-year growth rate of catering cheese was about 30%. Affected by the Jilin epidemic, the logistics and transportation of raw materials and finished products were not smooth, with a year-on-year decline. The trade was also affected by the epidemic, with a year-on-year basically stable and slow growth. In terms of channels, from the perspective of the number of dealers, as of March 31, 22, there were 5690 dealers, an increase of 496 and a decrease of 169 from January to March, 22. Compared with December 31, 2001, there was a net increase of 327 dealers from January to march of 22 years. In terms of expenses, the period expense rate of 22q1 company was 30.63%, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were 24.81% / 6.72% / 0.37% / - 1.27% respectively, year-on-year -1.18 / - 0.11 / - 0.48 / - 1.57pct. On the profit side, the net interest rate of 22q1 returned to the parent company was 5.72%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.35pct. After reducing the profits and losses of minority shareholders, the net interest rate was 6.31%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.06pct. According to the previous announcement, the company's 22-year equity incentive fee is about 122 million yuan. Considering the drag of equity incentive fee, the actual operating profit is in line with the expectation.
Two growth points in 22 years: normal temperature cheese stick + cheese slice. The normal temperature cheese stick was put into operation in 21q4, and the production capacity continued to climb. It entered the mass production stage in 22 years. It is expected to contribute considerable net increment, and the channel dividend of large single product of cheese stick will continue. New products of cheese slices, high calcium cheese slices and fat reducing cheese slices have been launched, and Sun Li's advertising films have been issued. It is expected to expand production to match the growth of demand side, and is optimistic about the revenue growth in 22 years.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 6.683/88.23/10.748 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.76/8.65/1.256 billion yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the production capacity is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and food safety risks.
