On April 18, the National Bureau of statistics released the first quarter economic data.
According to preliminary accounting, China’s GDP exceeded 27 trillion yuan in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% at constant prices.
Considering the characteristics of multiple points, wide range and frequent outbreaks of the epidemic in China in March, the area of sealing and control management is expanding, the cross provincial logistics in key areas is facing congestion, and some industrial chains and supply chains are affected. The economic growth of 4.8% in the first quarter is better than the prediction of many market institutions.
However, under the influence of the complex international situation and the epidemic situation in some parts of China, the growth rate of China’s main economic indicators in the first quarter fell compared with that from January to February. Consumption and service industries, which were significantly affected by the epidemic, showed negative growth in March.
the State Council recently held a number of symposiums. While affirming that the overall economic operation is within a reasonable range, it pointed out that some unexpected factors exceed expectations and bring greater uncertainty and challenges to the smooth operation of the economy. Recently, a number of central departments have intensively released signals of steady growth and launched measures such as smooth logistics, relieving small and medium-sized enterprises, reducing reserve requirements, special refinancing and accelerating the issuance of special bonds
the growth rate of 4.8% was better than the market expectation
The economy grew by 4.8% in the first quarter, a significant rebound from the 4% growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year. The growth rate of 4.8% is due to the good foundation laid from January to February, and is also related to the strong export and the forward force of stable growth policy.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of YueKai securities, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the economy grew by 4.8% in the first quarter, which is better than the economic expectation of the first quarter after the institutional correction after the rebound of China’s epidemic. As the policy level is committed to unblocking the industrial chain, opening up logistics blocking points and strengthening steady growth, economic expectations are changing in a good direction.
Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of the China Center for international economic exchanges, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that China’s epidemic spread more in March, and the economic growth of 4.8% in the first quarter was achieved through the efforts of all parties, which is not easy. To achieve the annual growth target of about 5.5%, we need to make great efforts in the future.
Specifically, in the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.5%, the national service industry production index increased by 2.5%, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.3%, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 9.3%, the export denominated in RMB increased by 13.4%, and the import denominated in RMB increased by 7.5%.
It can be seen that in the first quarter, industry, investment, import and export still maintained a high growth, and the data of service industry and consumption were greatly affected by the epidemic and other factors.
Take industrial data as an example. In the first quarter, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year, which is also higher than the conventional growth rate of China’s industry in recent years (the average growth rate of industries above Designated Size in the past two years was 6.1%).
even though some enterprises stopped production due to the epidemic in March, the industry still maintained a high growth rate in the first quarter driven by factors such as strong export, industrial upgrading and stable supply and price of coal and electricity. In the first quarter, the delivery value of industrial exports increased by 14.4% year-on-year, and the coal mining and washing industry increased by 13.2%, both maintaining rapid growth
Take investment data as an example. In the first quarter, the national fixed asset investment increased by 9.3% year-on-year. Among them, infrastructure investment increased by 8.5%, manufacturing investment increased by 15.6%, and real estate investment increased by 0.7%. Compared with the data from January to February, infrastructure investment rebounded by 0.4 percentage points in the first quarter, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment fell slightly, but still maintained a high growth.
Wu Yaping, a researcher at the Investment Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first quarter was higher than expected, which is closely related to policies such as good project reserves and advance arrangement of funds. Since 2018, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has shown a unilateral downward trend, which has been reversed this year. According to the specific data, infrastructure investment in water conservancy, electric power and other investments grew rapidly. These are good starting points for cross cycle and counter cycle adjustment, and they are also areas where China needs to make up for its shortcomings. Construction sites such as transportation, water conservancy and electric power are relatively closed and are less affected by the epidemic in March
“It is also supported by the high growth rate of manufacturing investment in the follow-up period. In the past two years, China’s export situation has been good, the utilization rate of manufacturing capacity is relatively high, and enterprises have the power to invest. Even if it is difficult to achieve the ultra-high growth rate of last year, exports are still expected to achieve steady growth,” Wu Yaping said.
unexpected factors in 3 exceeded expectations
Compared with the data from January to February, the growth rate of industry, service industry, consumption, investment, import and export in the first quarter fell.
In March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the national service industry production index decreased by 0.9% year-on-year – the growth rate of consumption and service industry in March was negative.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) macro team said that the total retail sales of social consumer goods in March fell by 3.5% year-on-year, and the consumption growth rate turned negative again after 17 months. Behind the weak consumption is the lack of consumption scenes caused by the epidemic, and the continuous low growth of residents’ disposable income also has a drag on consumption at present, the urgency of the rapid control of the epidemic and the policy of steady growth has further increased
In March, the national urban unemployment rate was 5.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the unemployment rates of the population survey aged 16-24 and 25-59 were 16% and 5.2% respectively. On April 18, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the Department of comprehensive statistics of national economy, attended the press conference of the state information office and said that this reflected the increase of production and operation difficulties of enterprises and the increase of employment pressure. Generally speaking, as people who change jobs around the Spring Festival find jobs one after another, the urban survey unemployment rate will drop in March. However, affected by the epidemic factors in some areas, the employment difficulty of some people increased in March, some job hunting and recruitment activities were affected, and the urban survey unemployment rate increased.
In addition, the overall investment fell significantly in March. Zhang Yongjun said that the investment increased by 9.3% in the first quarter and 12.2% from January to February. A simple calculation shows that the investment growth rate in March was about 6.7%, and there was a large downward trend in the investment growth rate in March analyze the reasons behind it. In addition to the decline in real estate investment, there are epidemic factors that lead to the failure of some construction personnel, materials, machinery and equipment. If the follow-up epidemic situation is well controlled, the investment growth still has potential
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) macro team said that according to the preliminary calculation, the real estate investment in a single month in March decreased by 2.4% year-on-year. In March, the decline in real estate sales area and sales continued to expand. In March, the auction rate of key monitored urban business land increased, and the epidemic also dragged down house viewing and housing construction.
However, since March, more cities have adjusted their real estate policies, reduced the down payment ratio, reduced the mortgage interest rate, adjusted the purchase and sale restriction policies, and the real estate sales data in some cities have gradually improved.
On April 18, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the Department of comprehensive statistics of national economy, attended the press conference of the state information office. He said that since March, the world situation has undergone complex evolution, the impact of the epidemic in China has continued, and some unexpected factors have exceeded expectations. The growth rate of some main indicators slowed down and the downward pressure on the economy increased. However, the fundamentals of China’s long-term economic improvement have not changed, the trend of sustained economic recovery has not changed, and the characteristics of great development potential, sufficient resilience and wide space have not changed. China is fully capable and qualified to overcome difficulties and challenges and achieve sustained and healthy economic development.
is 3 month the bottom
Since March, the epidemic situation in China has shown the characteristics of many points, wide range and frequent occurrence, and the epidemic prevention and control in some regions is still in force.
At the policy level, we are stepping up response efforts, including the introduction of special refinancing policies, RRR reduction, smooth logistics and other measures, in order to reduce the impact of the epidemic and promote the smooth operation of the economy. In addition, the State Council and a number of central ministries and commissions have repeatedly stressed that policies and measures need to be strengthened in advance and in time. Those that have been issued should be implemented in place as soon as possible, and those to be launched should be made clear as early as possible. At the same time, new plans should be studied and prepared.
Affected by the epidemic, some enterprises stopped production in March. Recently, areas with relatively severe epidemic situation, including Shanghai and Changchun, are closely promoting the resumption of industry, especially ensuring the recovery of key industrial chains such as automobiles.
There are still differences on whether March is the bottom.
Luo Zhiheng said that the impact of the epidemic on the economy in April may be more serious than that in March. After entering April, more places have strengthened prevention and control.
“In March, the unemployment rate of flexible employment groups and youth groups increased, which will exacerbate the living difficulties of some groups. On the premise of doing a good job in the prevention and control of the epidemic, we need to make production and life run better, and provide policy assistance to people in need. In addition, grass-roots governments should not only increase spending on epidemic prevention and relief, but also put pressure on local economy and finance. At the policy level, we also need to increase support to grass-roots governments.”, Luo Zhiheng said.
Zhang Yongjun said that it is unlikely that the economy will continue to decline in April. The second half of March was greatly affected by the epidemic, and April was the first half. For example, phased progress has been made in the prevention and control of the epidemic in Jilin. Through the efforts of all parties, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is being controlled. At present, the epidemic prevention and control policies are constantly optimized. The central government requires that all localities should not arbitrarily open or close roads, and should not arbitrarily disrupt the supply chain.
“At the policy level, the measures identified in the government work report, such as expanding domestic demand, can be implemented faster. In order to deal with some unexpected factors that exceed expectations, the prepared plans can be put into practice and the policy intensity can be increased appropriately,” Zhang Yongjun said.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) macro team said that since GDP, fixed asset investment and other indicators accounted for a relatively small proportion of the whole year in the first quarter, there is still time and space for subsequent steady growth. With the further development of policies, the economy is expected to repair in the second and third quarters
\u3000
