After a month of sideways trading at the bottom, on April 18, the price of pig futures ushered in a wave of rise. The focus of contract trading in May returned to above the 13000 yuan / ton mark. At one time, it rose straight to the five week high of 13580 yuan / ton at the end of the trading day, and finally closed at 13400 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.51%. The contract touched the daily limit at the end of September, up 7.34%, and the position increased by more than 4000 hands.
Recently, with the deepening of pork collection and storage and the continuous improvement of the order of magnitude, the effect of boosting pig prices has become more and more obvious. Industry insiders said that due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control in many parts of China, the transportation of pigs and pork was limited, farmers in some areas were forced to press the fence, and it was also increasing the difficulty for slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs in some areas. It was the superposition of the above factors that led to the rise of pork prices.
As the price of pig futures is boosted by the impact of the price of pig futures, the share price of listed companies that breed pigs is also followed by the price of spot. The price of listed companies that breed pigs, and the share price of listed companies that breed pigs. The price of a pig that is affected by the impact of the price of pig futures. The share price of the price of pig breeding is also followed by the price of the price of pig futures. The share price of listed companies that breed pigs, and the price of a pig that breed pigs. The price of listed companies that breed pigs, and the price of listed companies that breed pigs, also follow the price of spot spot. The price of spot spot prices has risen sharply. On April 18, on April 18th, on April 18, the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 124124124 '''s \ wait to keep up. In addition, Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002234) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) and other broiler breeding stocks also rose collectively.
"Declaration of victory for building a successful foundation"
Recently, the price ratio of pig to grain has been continuously lower than 5:1, which is in the level I early warning range of excessive decline determined in the working plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring the supply and price stability of pork market. On April 14, the fourth batch of central reserve frozen pork was collected and stored for 40000 tons. Sichuan, Gansu, Jiangxi and other places also started the collection and storage of provincial and municipal reserve pork one after another.
With the dual promotion of the landing of the fourth batch of pork reserves and replenishment of stocks, the enthusiasm of market funds to do long was unusually high. On April 18, the 2209 contract of pig futures rose by more than 7%. The recent outbreak in China has disturbed the consumption, which is less than expected, which has increased the sentiment of reluctant sale of terminals. Pig futures have been arranged in ascending water. Some pig breeders said that it may be only a matter of time for the cyclical bottoming out.
It is understood that the spot price of live pigs has been in a slow rebound since it fell to a low level in late March. The spot price discount of the spot contract was large last weekend, and the price difference narrowed after today's rebound. The rise in feed prices has accelerated the pace of marketing by breeding enterprises. In March, a number of listed breeding enterprises hit a record high, thus reducing the marketing pressure in the second quarter.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, at the end of the first quarter, there were 42.253 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%; Among them, 41.85 million sows can be bred. Tang Mingshan, the person in charge of golden pig data, told the Huaxia times that the news detonated the expectations of the market, so it rose faster in the far month. At present, the epidemic situation has been effectively prevented and controlled, and some areas have been gradually cleared. With the resumption of work and school in various epidemic control areas, the pressure of the epidemic on consumption has been reduced step by step, and consumption has improved.
In this regard, Xu Hongzhi, senior researcher of brick consulting, also said that the number of fertile sows released at the end of March was 41.85 million, which was close to the set 41 million normal stock. The task of de capacity was nearly completed, which gave a boost to the market. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the production area has a passive pressure on the column, while the sales area has a demand for home stock. The short-term change in the relationship between supply and demand is conducive to the recovery of pig prices, and the spot stock rebounded significantly at the weekend; The central and local governments have continuously started the collection and storage of pork.
Xu Hongzhi told the reporter of Huaxia times that from a fundamental point of view, the number of fertile sows has decreased for nine consecutive months since July 2021, from 45.4 million to 41.85 million, a decrease of about 9%; It is expected that the market supply of fattening pigs will also peak and fall from April to may, and the market sentiment will gradually turn to cautious optimism. From a technical point of view, the bottom of pig futures has appeared. In the past month, the 2205 contract failed to hit the pass of 12500 yuan / ton continuously, while the 2209 contract was supported by 16000 yuan / ton, forming an obvious shape of head, shoulder and bottom. The sharp rise on April 18 can be seen as a declaration of victory for bottom building success.
According to the monitoring data of China's pig breeding system, the price of pigs has been rising slightly from February 20204 to February 20204, the third week of this year. The range of pig price this week is between 12.36-12.92 yuan / kg. The pig price at the beginning of the week was 12.41 yuan / kg, and the pig price at the weekend was 12.92 yuan / kg. The pig price increased by 0.51 yuan / kg in the whole week.
In addition, Qin duogui, a Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) researcher of Guoxin futures, said that the direct inducement reflected by pig futures came from the rebound of spot goods over the weekend, but the improvement of underlying fundamentals is also traceable. From the data of breeding sows, the turning of breeding sows from July 2021 means that the supply pressure is the maximum in April and is expected to be reduced in the later stage.
\u3000\u3000 "Moreover, according to the latest statistics released by the Bureau of statistics, by the end of March, the number of sows capable of breeding had dropped to 41.85 million, and the production capacity had been close to balance, which also supported the expected improvement of pig prices in the future; from the perspective of demand, the new cases of covid-19 epidemic had turned around recently, and some areas had been cleared, which meant that the impact on consumption would also be reduced. In general, I expected that the low point of pig prices in the year had been seen in March By, the upward trend of overall shock in the later stage was basically established. " Qin duogui said.
pig breeding listed companies may benefit
On April 18, pig futures contracts ushered in a long lost surge. Among them, 2209 contract touched the daily limit. 2205 main contracts also reduced their positions obviously due to the sharp rise in disk, with more than 9300 positions reduced.
As the delivery month in May is about to enter, 2205 contract is facing the process of continuous position reduction. 2209 contract has become the main contract. The trading volume of 2209 contract is large, and the position has increased by 4400. From the perspective of the size of position and trading volume, the rise of 2209 contract is relatively firm, which is closely related to the changes of current prevention and control policies. Driven by the rapid rise of the main contracts of pig futures, the breeding ETF (159865) rose 4.10%, with a turnover of more than 120 million yuan and an on-site premium transaction.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) believes that under the continuous loss of the industry, the capacity removal will continue, and the accumulation momentum of capacity removal will eventually lead to the arrival of the turning point of the cycle. The judgment of q2-q3 inflection point is still maintained, and it is suggested to grasp the investment window period of pig breeding sector.
In this regard, Xu Hongzhi, a senior researcher of brick consulting, also said that the share prices of most pig listed enterprises have shown a wide fluctuation trend in the past few months.
At present, the complete breeding cost of all enterprises is basically more than 16 yuan / kg, while the current spot price is only about 13 yuan / ton. Although the recovery of pig price is expected, it will take quite a long time for enterprises to get rid of losses and achieve general profits. During this period of time, enterprises should ensure that there are no problems in capital chain management and avoid thunderstorms. "Therefore, we believe that there is still great uncertainty about whether the share price of pig breeding related companies has bottomed out."
At the same time, some insiders said that the short-term supply mainly depends on three factors: slaughtering, weight and fresh sales rate. In terms of quantity, the slaughtering volume reached the peak after the year in mid and early March, and then fell back, but it is still at a high level at present; In terms of weight, the national average is still maintained at the normal level of 115 to 120 kg, and there is no large-area pressure bar or supply pressure.
From the perspective of fresh sales rate, the overall fresh sales rate was low in March. The warehousing of frozen products diverted part of the supply of pigs, which supported the price. In April, the fresh sales rate picked up, but it still did not reach the normal level, and the warehousing of frozen products continued. In the future, the number of pigs sold may maintain a slight reduction trend with the realization of the turning point of production capacity, the weight is expected to be stable, and the fresh sales rate may recover with the rise of price. Overall, the situation of oversupply still exists, but the marginal improvement still needs to observe the adjustment of marketing rhythm and frozen products warehousing for short-term fresh products supply.
For the future trend of live pigs, Tang Mingshan, the person in charge of golden pig data, also told the reporter of Huaxia times that although the bottom of the spot price should be almost approaching, after all, March is the worst time, with large supply and poor demand. There may still be large supply behind, but the demand margin is improving. This time, the stock is declining, and the market is expected to improve the supply later.
At present, since the high point in early March 2005, the main contract of pig futures has dropped, the overall trend has been W-shaped bottom, and the bottom has gone out of the low point of 12360 yuan / ton. However, from the K-line chart of time-sharing trend, the overall disk price has certain support in the area of 12600 yuan / ton. Tang Mingshan said that in terms of the share price of pig enterprises, on the one hand, it is now in the main upsurge caused by the reversal of fried pig prices, that is, the dilemma reversal after the bottom of profits. Therefore, if the pig price rises, it is just the dilemma reversal; On the other hand, if the pig price falls, we can continue to speculate the logic of de production capacity.
