[early trading strategy]
Technically, at the weekly level, the Shanghai index closed the negative line with a long shadow line last week. During the adjustment at the beginning of the week, the Shanghai index once again tested the support of the lower 250 week moving average. In the past two weeks, the focus of the Shanghai stock index has shifted downward, and the K-line has formed a relatively standard "diamond" structure in the past five weeks, suggesting that the short-term market is still dominated by shock adjustment. At the daily level, the Shanghai Stock Index currently operates in a narrow space between the 5-day and 10-day moving average. The short-term upward change kinetic energy is insufficient. Pay attention to the pressure on the 3270 line above. Gem refers to that the weekly level has always moved down along the 5-week moving average, and there is an accelerating downward trend at present, which needs to be adjusted carefully and the pressure increases. At the daily level, the gem index is in a negative decline, and the index hit a recent low again on Friday. Next, focus on whether the gap of 25362546 above can be filled.
Over the weekend, the central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in reserve requirements, slightly lower than the general expectation of the market. From the operation of FTSE A50 stock index futures, which continued trading on Friday night, the market also gave a cautious attitude. From the actual situation, at present, China needs to strictly prevent inflation, the upside down of foreign interest rate differentials between China and the United States, and the space for RRR reduction is also relatively limited. We believe that the less than expected RRR reduction data may affect the market risk appetite in the short term. However, on the whole, China's "policy bottom" is becoming clear, and the overall valuation of A-Shares has entered a relatively low range. Even if there is a second bottom sounding process in the market, the space may be relatively limited. The recovery of market confidence needs a long process. When the internal and external environment is improved, the market is expected to rebound. Under the pattern of weak market, the market will still focus on the structural market of individual stocks. Investors are advised to watch more and move less, and do a good job in band operation on the basis of maintaining flexible positions. Focus on the following main lines: first, the main line of "steady growth". Affected by the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places, it will be more difficult to achieve an annual economic growth rate of 5.5%. Fiscal and monetary policies may be further relaxed, focusing on the new and old infrastructure, real estate, banks and other directions that benefit the most. The main line of "steady growth" may become the main line throughout the year; Second, the main line of inflation. U.S. inflation hit a 40 year high, and China's inflation data also rose month by month. At present, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices are rising rapidly. In the short term, we can focus on investment opportunities in seeds, pesticides, fertilizers and other sectors. The midline can focus on investment opportunities for mandatory consumption; Third, pay attention to the undervalued varieties with pre increased performance in the first quarter.
[message side]
1. The "small" RRR reduction has rich connotation and wide credit, which deserves more expectations
On April 15, the central bank announced the reduction of reserve requirements. In the view of analysts, the main line of steady growth policy has not changed, and the next action of monetary policy will be jointly determined by the economy, prices and external balance. There is uncertainty about whether LPR will be lowered this month. Compared with further monetary easing, the trend of expanding credit is more obvious.
2. SASAC: improve the quality of listed companies controlled by central enterprises
The video conference held by SASAC on the 16th stressed that central enterprises should further improve the quality of enterprise operation, assets, investment and holding listed companies, and actively implement a number of major projects specified in the 14th five year plan. We should resolutely fight for the end of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform, and "look back" on the reform tasks that have been completed and that have been completed, in accordance with the requirements of "locking the key points and paying close attention to the end".
3. Sufficient policy space and strong financial support for the real economy
Liao min, deputy director of the office of the central financial and Economic Commission and vice minister of the Ministry of finance, said at the "2022 Tsinghua Wudaokou global financial forum" that coordinating epidemic prevention and control, economic and social development and promoting economic operation should be kept within a reasonable range. The corresponding policies have been made clear. At present, all measures are being fully promoted in accordance with the requirements of early force and accurate implementation, and more policy combinations are also being studied and reserved.
4. Double disturbance enlarges the "temperature difference" of the economy and ensures steady growth to ensure economic heat
The epidemic spread in many places and the rising cost squeezed the profit space, which made the production and operation of many listed companies encounter unprecedented challenges. Faced with the challenge of great downward pressure on the economy in the second quarter, people in business circles and experts suggested that we should further strengthen the overall planning of epidemic prevention and control and steady growth, strive to stabilize expectations, boost demand, strengthen the policy of helping enterprises to rescue, and ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range.
