On Monday, the main A-share indexes rose more or fell less. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.49% to 319552 points. Other major stock indexes rose, with the Shenzhen composite index up 0.43%, the gem composite index up 1.02% and the science and innovation 50 index up 3.21%. The lagging performance of the Shanghai index is obviously related to the decline of bank stocks.
China Merchants Bank led the banking sector to fall, with China Merchants Bank falling 7.35%, and all the five major banks fell, of which Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , the stock fell 3.69%. In addition, brokerage stocks also fell miserably. The performance of real estate stocks was also very poor, and poly and Vanke both recorded a lot of declines.
The reason for the poor performance of these varieties is quite obvious. This is that the news of reducing the reserve requirement over the weekend failed to meet the appetite of bulls. However, the vast majority of stocks rose. News such as RRR reduction is less than expected, so that the policy surface remains flexible and has more flexible follow-up policy space.
Personally, I think it is appropriate and pragmatic to reduce the reserve requirement by 25 basis points, which is easier to generate some confidence in the market. At the weekend, I also said that although the RRR reduction was less than expected, investors should not react too much. One of the reasons is that the difficulties of many industries are not all due to lack of money, but due to the interference of the epidemic, which eventually makes the effective demand insufficient. Therefore, excessive stimulation may not be useful in this case.
In addition to the fact that the RRR reduction policy itself is not necessarily bad, the news of the resumption of work and production of local industrial chains such as Shanghai also constitutes a good news. First, it is reflected in the sharp rise of individual auto parts stocks with more resumption of work. Next, the resumption of work industry may increase slowly, and I believe more individual stocks may also rise one after another.
In recent weeks, I have always had a view that the most essential support for the market is the optimistic outlook for economic growth, which means that listed companies can make blood by themselves, while other supports, such as the release of money, can only be regarded as external blood transfusion, and the benefits are obviously limited.
According to the data released by the Bureau of statistics this morning, China’s GDP increased by 4.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, and the national fixed asset investment increased by 9.3% year-on-year in the first quarter. The above GDP growth rate is actually slightly better than expected.
If investors hold real estate stocks and infrastructure stocks, they will still have the opportunity to benefit from the measures related to steady growth in the future. However, this expectation may be digested by the market. Investors should generally bargain hunting when operating relevant stocks, but they don’t have to catch up when they are too high.
Relatively speaking, I have a better view of “dilemma reversal” stocks, because once these stocks have a dilemma reversal event, the space will be much larger, far more than the above infrastructure and real estate stocks.
Although investment is not gambling, it also talks about “odds”!
At present, investors may wish to focus on the varieties related to the resumption progress. If the time is prolonged, the stock selection can be more general, and the “dilemma reversal concept stocks” can be widely distributed.
Some investors are unwilling to operate stocks with relatively more uncertainty. For such investors, it is advisable to find some so-called “wrongly killed” stocks with low relative position, relatively less affected by the epidemic, or brought down by the market. For such stocks, the top priority is to clarify the annual report and try to figure out the performance outlook for the first half of the year.
Of course, we can also pay attention to the pharmaceutical and other related stocks that benefit from the epidemic, but it should be noted that such stocks are usually in a relatively high position and generally should not be put on the whole line. Of course, we can also consider participating if the position is appropriate.
