Pig futures once soared by more than 6% during the day, and the price of piglets rebounded sharply from the bottom.
pig futures once soared by more than 6%
piglet prices rose 188% from the bottom
On April 18, the main contract of pig futures rose 6% and closed up 5.51% to close at 13400 yuan / ton. The closing price hit a new high since March 10
In terms of spot, last Saturday, the national pig price was 12.87 yuan / kg, up 3.9% week on week; The average wholesale price of pork in China was 18.3 yuan / kg, up 0.4% on a weekly basis.
Last week, the market price of 15kg piglets was 444 yuan / head, up 8% on a weekly basis, up 188% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1611 yuan / head, down 0.7% on a weekly basis, up 30% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom.
institutions: pig prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023
Recently, China has been plagued by the epidemic, and the logistics interruption in some areas has led to the restriction of pig slaughter. The national spot price of pigs stopped falling and rebounded in a large area. The spot price of pigs rebounded to a certain extent. The price of piglets in the South also rose sharply, led by the Guangdong and Guangdong regions, and the market sentiment continued to pick up.
The supply of pork is still in progress, affected by the decline of pork prices. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the number of fertile sows in China decreased from 45.64 million at the end of June last year to 42.68 million at the end of February this year, a cumulative decrease of 6.5%. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.5% month on month in February this year, which is still in the downward channel.
On the demand side, the collection and storage of the fourth batch of frozen pork in the central reserve traded 40000 tons of frozen pork in the afternoon of April 14. In addition, Sichuan, Gansu, Jiangxi and other places have also started the collection and storage of pork, local and national collection and storage will form a joint force of "supporting the market" and boost market confidence
Driven by the decline in purchasing, storage and inventory, there is obvious support for pig prices Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that pig prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023, and the production capacity inflection point of China's pig breeding industry appeared in June last year. Recently, the price of piglets has soared, and the enthusiasm of free range farmers to arrange fences has rebounded. It maintains its previous judgment, if there is no serious epidemic, the industry will experience a bottom grinding stage this year, and the pig price is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023
pig industry index strengthened against the market during the year
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) indicates that the pig price in 2022 belongs to the bottom stage of the cycle. From the perspective of cost, the global bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) will be at an all-time high in 2022, and the grain price is expected to reach a new high in the second half of the year. Therefore, the current pig breeding industry is squeezed by both the downstream and upstream, and the cash loss rate of the industry is unprecedented. It continues to maintain the judgment that the production capacity will be cleared in the first half of 2023, and 2022 is the best layout window.
Although the pork price is still at the bottom, the pork concept stocks have gradually stepped out of the bottom area, and the trend of some stocks is obviously stronger than the market.
According to the statistics of a statistical treasure from the data of a statistical times, the statistics of a statistical treasure on the data of a statistical times from the data of the data of a statistical times. Within the year of this year, the index of the pig industry index has nearly 12 percent of the year, and the 's share price of the \ Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) increased slightly by nearly 3% during the year.
Among the 25 pig industry stocks, 15 rose during the year, while Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Pengdu Agriculture & Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002505) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) fell by more than 10% during the year.
Affected by the downturn in pork prices, the performance of individual stocks in the pig industry suffered a general loss last year. According to the statistics of databao, based on the forecast net profit ceiling or annual report data, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) two companies have a loss of more than 10 billion yuan, and the forecast net profit ceiling of New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) is 8.6 billion yuan.
Among profitable companies, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) forecast profit ceiling is 8 billion yuan, but compared with the performance of the previous year, it has dropped by nearly 72% Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) has announced that the net profit last year was 4.866 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22%.
