Today (April 18), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and then gradually fluctuated and rose. The Shenzhen Component Index and gem index once turned red, and the pattern of strong Shenzhen and weak Shanghai in the morning was obvious.
From the disk point of view, the big financial hit the market in the morning, the industry and concept sectors fell more and rose less, and the local profit-making effect was general. Auto parts, agriculture, animal husbandry, fishery and other sectors led the rise, while logistics, community group purchase and electronic components also showed relatively resistance to decline. It is worth mentioning that in the agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery sector, Jinhe Biotechnology Co.Ltd(002688) , Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei) Co.Ltd(600965) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) , Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(002234) , Guangdong feed, Cnfc Overseas Fisheries Co.Ltd(000798) , Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , etc.
Guosheng Securities believes that with the gradual reduction of the impact of the peripheral geopolitical situation and the landing of the expected reduction of reserve requirements, the short-term market may continue to maintain the rhythm of shock consolidation. From the market performance since this year, the impact of the market on monetary policy is gradually weakening. For example, after the MLF interest rate cut in January and the social finance exceeded expectations in March, the market did not rise. It is judged that the short-term monetary policy is not the decisive factor affecting the market. What is more related to liquidity is the valuation of growth stocks, so the restraint of monetary policy may continue to suppress the valuation of growth stocks.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that the valuation of pig breeding stocks is at a relatively low level. It is suggested to look at the long term from the short term and pay attention to the cyclical upward certainty expectation brought by the deregulation of production capacity. Key recommendations: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) : cost leadership, strong growth certainty, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : sufficient capital reserves and effective cost control in the near future.
In addition, in the current environment of rising global food prices and restrictions on food exports in many countries, transgenic technology is expected to accelerate the implementation. Key recommendations: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) : abundant reserves of transgenic technology, Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) : corn seeds are expected to increase both quantity and price.
In addition, at present, China’s white feather chicken supply level is at an all-time high, and the chicken price continues to be depressed. If the customs is closed later, it will benefit the promotion of domestic ancestral chicken and the prosperity of white feather chicken industry. It is expected that the price elasticity of ancestral chicken is better than that of commodity generation. Highlights: Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) : own ancestral breeding chickens, sell breeding chickens and parental generation chicken seedlings.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that the industry has different opinions on the inflection point recently, and we still maintain the judgment of q2-q3 inflection point coming. It is suggested to grasp the investment window period of pig breeding sector, and all companies are in the bottom range from the average market value dimension, while the performance is low, and the market has been fully expected, so there is no need to worry too much. At this stage, we continue to recommend breeding head enterprises that have obvious advantages in cost control, followed by second-line and small American Standard enterprises that focus on Dilemma reversal, large cost improvement expectation and certainty of listing growth. Highlight Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , etc.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that 2022 is the best stage to lay out the pig sector in advance, and the pig cycle will probably reverse the market in 2023. The recent significant rise in the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle and further strengthen the expectation of sector reversal. It is expected that the stock of fertile sows may continue to be removed with the decline of pig price in the first half of 2022, which is expected to further catalyze the sector.
[Topic 2] auto parts
Huachuang Securities said that the automobile industries in Changchun and Shanghai have entered the stage of resumption of production. Boosted by the expectation of resumption of work and production in Shanghai, the auto parts sector rose on Friday, April 15, and the market attention rebounded. Since March, the production capacity recovery of the two major automobile industries in Changchun and Shanghai is as follows: the FAW red flag in Changchun has resumed production on April 15, FAW Volkswagen plans to resume production this week on April 18, and some FAW parts companies have resumed production in small batches; Shanghai complete vehicle (SAIC and Tesla) and parts are scheduled to resume work and production pressure test on April 18. In addition to the closed-loop production of the two cities, we need to track the logistics mitigation of the manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River Delta.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that in terms of market performance, the core targets of automobile connectors, controllers and Internet of things modules affected by the epidemic generally fell by 30% – 50% from the recent high, and the valuation was at a historical low. Some companies still achieved high growth in the Q1 forecast of the impact of the epidemic. With the orderly resumption of work and production, the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain is expected to be alleviated, After the logistics recovery, the whole vehicle factory may increase the supply chain inventory replenishment procurement in the short term, and the sentiment of the sector is expected to be repaired. Intelligent innovation + localization will continue to promote the medium-term growth of the industrial chain. It is suggested to layout the core targets of automobile connectors, controllers and Internet of things modules on a bargain hunting basis.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) also mentioned that Changchun and Shanghai promote the resumption of work and production, which is conducive to the valuation and repair of auto zero industry chain. We believe that excellent companies are expected to make up their orders after the end of the epidemic through excellent resumption of work and production control and excellent quality control, so as to achieve performance and valuation repair. However, the whole process still depends on whether the epidemic can be fully controlled.
[Topic 3] Logistics
Anxin securities mentioned that the logistics supply guarantee policy continued to work, the road freight flow rebounded, and the industry ushered in a turning point of recovery. For the access system, the single ticket profit of each company remained at a high level and was optimistic about the improvement of leading performance; SF has adjusted its operation in place and is optimistic about the value of medium and long-term layout. China’s demand for aviation has been restrained by the epidemic in the short term, but the recovery cycle of the industry has not been changed. At present, scientific epidemic prevention has released positive signals, while the certainty of supply has slowed down. It is still optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the aviation industry for a long time, and the superposition of fare market-oriented reform has opened up flexible space.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that (1) express delivery sector: policy orientation, changes in e-commerce business flow and the evolution of enterprises’ own competition are forming a joint force to promote the operation of the top three e-commerce express enterprises to improve substantially. Unlike the market’s differences on demand, cost and price, especially the competition pattern, we believe that Yunda and Yuantong, the leaders of e-commerce express, have poor multiple expectations including volume, price, cost, profit and valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to the high configuration cost performance of Zhongtong, Yunda and Yuantong; SF has a clear attitude towards cost reduction and efficiency increase, guaranteed performance improvement, and optimized product structure, cost structure and pricing structure. It is expected that this year, the company will be in the intertwined stage of gradual recovery of performance and steady growth of parts.
The bottom of medium and long-term value is proved, and the purpose of squatting is to better take off. Looking forward to 20232025, the company’s time effective logistics, economic e-commerce logistics and international business are expected to usher in new driving forces. The first growth curve time effective logistics dividend has not been completed, and the second and third growth curves are also being opened step by step. It is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term configuration value of the company and maintain the bottom layout patiently.
(2) Airport sector: under the suppression of the epidemic, the industry suffered losses or exceeded expectations in the first quarter, the supply tightening is still continuing, and the height and duration of the future boom will exceed expectations. The bottom of sentiment and fundamentals is about to pass. At present, it is still a good opportunity to build positions.
(3) shipping sector: the centralized transportation market is highly prosperous and lasts longer than expected. With the continuous disclosure of performance by the centralized transportation companies, the centralized transportation sector enters the performance cashing period. In the short term, the current demand for centralized transportation is still strong, the epidemic continues to repeat, so that the effective supply is always limited, and the high freight rate continues to rise.
In the later stage, the overseas epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the supply chain has gradually returned to normal. The current extremely high freight rate level may be difficult to maintain. At that time, there will be pressure of correction in the market. It is suggested to pay attention to foreign trade centralized transportation Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , Asian regional centralized transportation Haifeng International. The oil transportation sector is affected by the sharp reduction of production in major oil producing countries and the epidemic situation. At present, the oil transportation market is in a downturn. However, the supply side of the oil transportation industry has large room for optimization, new ship orders are at a historical low, and there are many old ships that can be disassembled. It is expected that the supply growth rate will slow down significantly in the next few years. With the gradual recovery of OPEC’s output, the market is expected to drive the improvement of the company’s performance again. It is suggested to pay attention to oil transportation Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) .
(4) highway and railway sector: the debt like assets have opened the upward channel, the robustness of highways is prominent, and it is recommended to pay attention to China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) , Guangdong Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) .
(5) supply chain sector: pay attention to cross-border e-commerce, logistics and other relevant supply chain leaders, and pay attention to Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) , Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) , Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) .
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) believes that the importance of smooth logistics has been re recognized, the policy of ensuring smooth logistics has been issued by multiple departments, and the express and logistics sectors are strong. The airport and aviation sectors have been improving for a long time, at a fundamental trough in the short term, and the stock price game sentiment is strong. The steady growth sector and infrastructure related sectors cooled slightly, while the port, shipping, highway and railway sectors were slightly weak in the short term. The market has relatively sufficient expectations for the first quarter report of the main subject of transportation. At present, we should continue to pay attention to the long-term fundamentals and industrial policy tracking.
[theme 4] community group purchase
Shanghai Securities pointed out that the epidemic prevention and control is becoming more strict, and real-time retail and community group purchase and other business forms may benefit: the self operated mode of real-time retail e-commerce, such as daily excellent fresh food, Ding Dong shopping, box horse, meituan shopping and so on; O2o platform modes, such as Jingdong home, taoxianda, hungry, meituan flash purchase, etc; Community group purchase, such as meituan optimization, buying more vegetables, panning vegetables, etc. Suggested attention: JD group and HEMA (Alibaba).
How to view the community group buying track under supervision Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that opportunities and challenges coexist. (1) What is the development of community group buying policy, industry environment and competition pattern at this stage? 1) In terms of industrial policies: the overall origin is traced back, but the commercial value of group buying and the direction of encouraging community digitization remain unchanged; 2) In terms of business environment: the clearing of the industry is accelerated, the market returns to rationality, and provides fine operation soil; 3) In terms of competition pattern: the scale of players who have entered the game has initially taken shape, and the strong is always strong; It is less difficult for new entrants to realize regional “small and beautiful” operation, but it is more difficult to scale up.
(2) what are the opportunities and challenges for users, leaders and commodity sides at this stage? 1) User level: the sinking market is active, and the proportion of users in the main station is low; 2) Head level: Supervision accelerates the transformation from “extensive operation with high commission” to “fine operation with reasonable commission”; 3) Commodity level: at present, the share of brands is limited, but the growth rate is expected to be high, and there is a large space for fresh food penetration in the sinking area.
(3) what is the market space of community group purchase? Based on the perspective of user penetration and category penetration, the scale of purchasing users, annual purchasing frequency, unit price per piece, unit price per customer, penetration rate of each category and other aspects are predicted respectively. The conclusions are as follows: 1) if the current model is maintained, the neutral forecast will reach 1.33 trillion yuan in 2023; 2) If we upgrade to near-field community e-commerce, the neutral forecast will reach 1.6 trillion yuan in 2023.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pointed out that the community group purchase has entered a new stage of development of “intensive cultivation”, and the differentiated operation and rapid rise of vegetable panning. In 2020, major Internet companies, including Alibaba, meituan, pinduoduo, didi and jd.com, successively laid out / overweight community group buying, and the industry competition was intensifying. In 2021, the competition pattern of the industry is becoming clearer and clearer. Meituan optimization, buying more vegetables, prosperity optimization and panning vegetables have established obvious leading advantages. Industry development focus “from quantity to quality”.
