The good news over the weekend did not exceed expectations. Today (April 18), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, followed by a gradual shock and recovery. The pattern of Shenzhen strong and Shanghai weak was obvious throughout the day, the Shanghai index closed down slightly, and the gem rose by more than 1%. The market style has changed from the recent strong value direction to today's growth rebound.
In this regard, AVIC Securities pointed out that considering the impact of external conflicts and the structural imbalance between supply and demand of bulk commodities, we expect the upstream cycle varieties to remain attractive in the short term. In the short term, the rise of US bond yields will continue to suppress the growth style of a shares. However, in the medium and long term, growth still has allocation value. In the growth style, the manufacturing industry will be the main force of the future market. It is suggested to lay out high-end manufacturing industry and new energy photovoltaic semiconductor field.
At the same time, Guosheng Securities said that what the current A-share market lacks is popularity and confidence, waiting for further coverage of the policy. In terms of operation, pay attention to the low absorption opportunities of automobile industry chain, integrated circuit, equipment manufacturing and other topics under the expectation of resumption of production and work in the late part of this month. The investment and consumption links under the demand of "internal circulation" are also worthy of attention, and large state-owned enterprises have certain advantages.
sector:
I. auto parts
Huachuang Securities said that the automobile industries in Changchun and Shanghai have entered the stage of resumption of production. Boosted by the expected resumption of work and production in Shanghai. Since March, the production capacity recovery of the two major automobile industries in Changchun and Shanghai is as follows: the FAW red flag in Changchun has resumed production on April 15, FAW Volkswagen plans to resume production this week on April 18, and some FAW parts companies have resumed production in small batches; Shanghai complete vehicle (SAIC and Tesla) and parts are scheduled to resume work and production pressure test on April 18. In addition to the closed-loop production of the two cities, we need to track the logistics mitigation of the manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River Delta.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that in terms of market performance, the core targets of automobile connectors, controllers and Internet of things modules affected by the epidemic generally fell by 30% - 50% from the recent high, and the valuation was at a historical low. Some companies still achieved high growth in the Q1 forecast of the impact of the epidemic. With the orderly resumption of work and production, the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain is expected to be alleviated, After the logistics recovery, the whole vehicle factory may increase the supply chain inventory replenishment procurement in the short term, and the sentiment of the sector is expected to be repaired. Intelligent innovation + localization will continue to promote the medium-term growth of the industrial chain. It is suggested to layout the core targets of automobile connectors, controllers and Internet of things modules on a bargain hunting basis.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) also mentioned that Changchun and Shanghai promote the resumption of work and production, which is conducive to the valuation and repair of auto zero industry chain. We believe that excellent companies are expected to make up their orders after the end of the epidemic through excellent resumption of work and production control and excellent quality control, so as to achieve performance and valuation repair. However, the whole process still depends on whether the epidemic can be fully controlled.
Suggested concerns: 1) suggested focus: 1) the proposed focus: 1) returning to work and returning to return to a job's core beneficiaries: 1) returning to work and returning to return to a job's core beneficiary targets: Shanghai Trendzone Holdings Group Co.Ltd(603030) 3035 , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) ; 2) Head independent vehicle and new power vehicle enterprises: Xiaopeng, ideal, Weilai, great wall, Chang'an and Geely; 3) Electric Intelligence: Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , longitude and latitude Hengrun (not covered), etc; 4) Parts and components: Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) (not covered); 5) Power exchange equipment: Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) ; 6) Motor: Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Tongling Jingda Special Magnet Wire Co.Ltd(600577) (uncovered), Jee Technology Co.Ltd(688162) ; 7) Heavy truck: Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) a / h, Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) a / h, Weifu High-Technology Group Co.Ltd(000581) , Aofu Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688021) (not covered); 8) Dealers: Zhongsheng holding, Meidong automobile (not covered); 9) Two wheeled vehicle: Yadi holding, Aima Technology Group Co.Ltd(603529) etc.
II. Agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that the valuation of pig breeding stocks is at a relatively low level. It is suggested to look at the long term from the short term and pay attention to the cyclical upward certainty expectation brought by the deregulation of production capacity. Key recommendations: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) : cost leadership, strong growth certainty, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : sufficient capital reserves and effective cost control in the near future.
In addition, in the current environment of rising global food prices and restrictions on food exports in many countries, transgenic technology is expected to accelerate the implementation. Key recommendations: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) : abundant reserves of transgenic technology, Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) : corn seeds are expected to increase both quantity and price.
In addition, at present, China's white feather chicken supply level is at an all-time high, and the chicken price continues to be depressed. If the customs is closed later, it will benefit the promotion of domestic ancestral chicken and the prosperity of white feather chicken industry. It is expected that the price elasticity of ancestral chicken is better than that of commodity generation. Highlights: Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) : own ancestral breeding chickens, sell breeding chickens and parental generation chicken seedlings.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that the industry has different opinions on the inflection point recently, and we still maintain the judgment of q2-q3 inflection point coming. It is suggested to grasp the investment window period of pig breeding sector, and all companies are in the bottom range from the average market value dimension, while the performance is low, and the market has been fully expected, so there is no need to worry too much. At this stage, we continue to recommend breeding head enterprises that have obvious advantages in cost control, followed by second-line and small American Standard enterprises that focus on Dilemma reversal, large cost improvement expectation and certainty of listing growth. Highlight Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , etc.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that 2022 is the best stage to lay out the pig sector in advance, and the pig cycle will probably reverse the market in 2023. The recent significant rise in the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle and further strengthen the expectation of sector reversal. It is expected that the stock of fertile sows may continue to be removed with the decline of pig price in the first half of 2022, which is expected to further catalyze the sector.
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