Analysis of the annual report of the first public offering REITs: uncertainty environment and certainty premium

According to the financial data of the 2021 annual report of the first batch of infrastructure public REITs projects, the overall operation of the first batch of public REITs is relatively stable. In terms of asset types, among the three REITs of infrastructure in the park, the total operating revenue, total profit and net profit of Soochow Suzhou Industrial Park REITs in 2021 were higher than those of the other two REITs of the same type, which were 147588000 yuan, 33144000 yuan and 32866000 yuan respectively. Among the two REITs of transportation infrastructure, the total operating revenue, total profit and net profit of Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT in 2021 were higher than those of Zhejiang merchants, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Ningbo REIT, which were 434185 million yuan, 119575 million yuan and 130086 million yuan respectively. Unfashionable “produce 101” unfashionable “produce 101”, the total revenue of the REITs in 2021 is about 209 million 218 thousand yuan, which is more than 3 times the innovation of Yantian REIT in red soil, and the total profit and net profit of the REIT are 21 million 823 thousand yuan and 21 million 823 thousand yuan respectively, because the manager pays the highest salary in the first batch of all REITs in the REIT. Among the two REITs of ecological and environmental protection, AVIC Shougang biomass REIT achieved a total operating revenue of 235648000 yuan in 2021, which was higher than that of Fuguo’s first water REIT, while its total profit and net profit were – 24.147 million yuan and – 21.922 million yuan respectively, far lower than that of Fuguo’s first water REIT of 38.693 million yuan and 35.995 million yuan.

On the whole, the profit of the public REITs project company in 2021 decreased compared with that in 2020, mainly due to the faster growth rate of the cost side than the income side. The unfashionable “produce 101” of the two types of assets is 1. The two companies in the warehouse and logistics category have excellent performance in the operation of the REITs, and the total business income, total profit and net profit in 2021 have increased by 2020 compared with that in 2020. 2) The profitability of infrastructure REITs in the park was slightly weak in 2021, and the performance of Boshi China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) REIT and Huaan Zhangjiang Everbright Park REIT were relatively weak; 3) The total operating revenue of the two REITs of transportation infrastructure in 2021 increased significantly compared with the previous period, but the profit side differentiation was large. The total operating revenue of Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT and Zheshang Shanghai Hangzhou Ningbo REIT increased by 41.0% and 45.0% month on month respectively in 2021, and the revenue side achieved significant growth; 4) Two REITs in the category of ecological and environmental protection, the first water REIT in rich countries, has a better performance, and the profit side is stronger than the biomass REIT of AVIC Shougang.

By analyzing and comparing the adjusted predicted amount available for distribution in 2021 in the annual report of the first batch of public REITs and the prospectus, on the whole, the operation performance in 2021 is in line with the expected value, and the performance of ecological and environmental protection projects is better. 1) Among the three REITs for infrastructure in the park, the actual amount available for distribution of Boshi China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) REIT exceeded the expected value in the prospectus, with an increase of 15.1%; 2) The distributable amount of the two REITs for transportation infrastructure during the reporting period exceeded the expected value in the prospectus, of which the actual distributable amount of Zhejiang merchants, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Ningbo REITs in 2001 significantly exceeded the recruitment forecast value by 71.7 percentage points; 3) The operation performance of two REITs in warehousing and logistics in 2021 is better than the expected value of the prospectus, and the operation is in good condition. Among them, the unfashionable “produce 101” REIT is the total amount of $47 million 310 thousand that will be allocated in 2021, exceeding the annual prospectus of the prospectus 8.5%. 4) The adjusted distributable amount of the two REITs of ecological and environmental protection category significantly exceeded the expected value of the prospectus, Shougang green energy exceeded the expected value by 53.4%, and Fuguo’s first water REIT exceeded the expected value by 64.4%.

Public REITs rely on the adjustment of accounts receivable and payable to ensure the positive growth of cash flow available for distribution. Due to the particularity of public REITs, we pointed out in SWOT, rules and Pricing: REITs investment guide that the distributable cash flow in the statement of public REITs is more meaningful than the net profit. For this batch of REITs annual report, after splitting the distributable cash flow, we found that most of the public REITs significantly increased the non operating cash flow items when the net profit decreased month on month, Ensure that the cash flow available for distribution can achieve the expected objectives.

Risk warning: the future operation of REITs basic assets project is uncertain; The future cash flow calculated in the prospectus may not accurately reflect the actual situation; The progress of raising and issuing was less than expected.

- Advertisment -