Under the trend of "double dip", the market focus is still shifted to the market value, and the income difference between high and low values continues to expand during the year. Even if the policy strength is increased, it has failed to reverse the market sentiment. How can the risk appetite be saved in the macro environment of strong expectation and weak reality? How will the pan stable growth market be interpreted?
The price difference between high and low value continues to widen, and 50 continues to lead during the "re bottom" period. In the past month, we have continuously emphasized three conclusions: 1. The pricing logic of strong expectation and weak reality continues; 2. The inflection point of value market does not appear so quickly, and the certainty of index level 50 is higher; 3. The overall beta market of boom track has changed from strong to weak. Last week's report "the trend doesn't end so soon" (20220410) mentioned that since this year, the market has two core characteristics: "high cut to low" and the deviation between performance and stock price. The pricing logic reflected behind them are: the contraction of risk appetite and the reversal of macro expectations.
What can save you, the risk appetite of a shares? On the whole, the macro risk level at this stage is still high. The predictability of the epidemic development, the stagflation expectation caused by Russia and Ukraine, and even the tightening rhythm of the Federal Reserve is low. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that the risk appetite of the stock market continues to be under pressure. In the future, there are three ways to repair the A-share risk appetite:
First of all, the monetary end force is no longer the focus. At this stage, the core lies in whether the endogenous credit expansion can be realized, and the medium and long-term loan of enterprises is the key. Monetary easing is important, but in the environment of external tightening and internal loosening, whether the liquidity released by the central bank can be transmitted to the entity is the key; Therefore, credit counseling is the key to promoting risk appetite. When the inflection point of medium and long-term loans appears is very important for the establishment of market confidence. Second, the shift in the global interest rate environment (or Fed tightening expectations). The expected guidance of the FOMC meeting in May on the future table contraction is a key node, but it is difficult to see the reversal of the peripheral interest rate environment in the short term. On the one hand, the inflationary pressure is difficult to eliminate, on the other hand, the fundamentals of the United States are still strong. From the leading indicators we track, it is not appropriate to game the fed too early. Third, the situation and control policies of the epidemic. Since March, the epidemic has become the core logic of short-term trading. The demand in the originally improved peak season has been pushed back again, and the annual growth target of 5.5 has been put in question. Breaking this deadlock requires the improvement of the epidemic situation and the recovery of normal demand. Otherwise, the abnormal pricing logic of "strong expectation and weak reality" will continue.
In the follow-up, what are the priorities of the pan stable growth sector? From the perspective of segmentation, we give priority to the following recommendations within the pan stable growth sector: 1) high-quality private enterprises + state-owned enterprise developers (the policy trend is determined, the transition risk is low, and high-quality private enterprises have both security and high flexibility); 2) Local & high growth construction (the source of funds is still the key, the performance verification window is coming, and local high growth construction stocks have more advantages); 3. High quality small and medium-sized banks (bank stocks follow the repair, and regional high-quality small and medium-sized banks have higher flexibility); 4. Steel stocks (the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve, the fundamental inflection point is expected to come, and the allocation cost performance is prominent). As long as the combination of weak economy and policies is not reversed, the pricing logic of strong expectation and weak reality will continue. The undervalued value represented by steady growth will continue to lead the market, and pay attention to the dilemma reversal sector of relatively undervalued value + low positions. In the medium-term outlook, if the path of risk preference improvement mentioned above is realized, according to the law of transmission from the bottom of credit to the bottom of economy, we can pay attention to the strategic allocation opportunities of consumer stocks in the middle and later part of the second quarter, especially the core consumer companies do not rule out the possibility of running ahead in advance.
Strategic suggestions and industry recommendations: (I) entity and credit are both weak, the demand for steady growth is further strengthened, and the transmission of currency and credit needs to be strengthened. High quality private enterprises + state-owned enterprise developers, local growth buildings and high-quality small and medium-sized banks are recommended in the direction of steady growth; (II) steel with undervalued value and high dividend, state-owned enterprise reform + military industry determined by growth trend; (III) aquaculture, oil transportation, shipping and catering with the concept of dilemma reversal.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic situation is out of control; 2. A sharp recession; 3. The policy has changed more than expected.
