1. The disturbance of the epidemic to the economy gradually appears
As far as this year is concerned, as China's epidemic situation and prevention and control may continue to exceed expectations, the economic disturbance caused by this epidemic that needs to be strictly controlled for a longer time may gradually appear. In terms of the performance of economic growth, we expect China's export share in 22q2 to decline due to the impact. In addition, the impact of the epidemic on exports may weaken the advantage of China's relatively high economic growth. Superimposing the interest rate increase and table contraction cycle officially opened by the Federal Reserve, it will intensify the change trend of foreign capital outflow, and will further affect the capital side of the A-share market.
From the past epidemic data and the performance of epidemic prevention measures, we believe that the "inflection point" and clearing time of this round of epidemic data may be longer than the market expectation. With the continuous outbreak and spillover of Omicron epidemic in Shanghai and other cities, China's strict control measures of "dynamic clearing" will not be shaken; At the same time, the epidemic in China's surrounding areas is still rampant and has higher transmission power Type 2 has also begun to spread around the world, and the pressure on China's foreign defense input is still increasing. As of April 10, the number of confirmed and asymptomatic infections in China has exceeded 25000 every day, and the daily new cases of this round of epidemic have not seen a "turning point". Therefore, we believe that the restriction or persistence of the dynamic interpretation of the epidemic situation on the risk disturbance factors of the A-share market may make it difficult for the market to have a "V-shaped reversal" similar to that in March 2020 in the short term. Therefore, even without considering the continuous fermentation of geopolitical risks after the Russian Ukrainian war, it is expected that it will be difficult to replicate the market in March of 20 years this year.
2. Russia Ukraine peace talks are tortuous and protracted, and bulk commodities are expected to remain high
Recently, geopolitical risks have continued to stir the market. Due to the particularity of Russia and Ukraine in the pricing system of some global resource products, the market is expected to mainly follow the changes of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and quickly reflect it on the trend of commodity prices. The evolution trend of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will determine the sustainability of the rise of commodity prices. The Western sanctions against Russia will probably only increase without decreasing. Even if some countries choose to increase production or find alternative energy to put pressure on the rise of bulk commodities in the future, the change of supply and demand pattern in the short term will limit the decline of bulk commodity prices; This will keep the bulk high, and the hawks of the Federal Reserve will continue to exceed expectations.
3. Investment suggestions
In the context of reshaping the global supply pattern, China's acceleration of the construction of a national unified market will contribute to the improvement of China's supply chain security and efficiency. From the perspective of supply chain security, the implementation of Western sanctions triggered by the turmoil in Russia and Ukraine may disturb the global supply chain in the long term, and the domestic substitution of key parts in China may accelerate in the future. At the same time, the impact of the Fed's interest rate increase cycle on market funds is also gradually emerging.
To sum up, on the premise that the global market risk factors such as geographical turmoil and foreign capital flows have not been eliminated, the current position does not recommend blindly chasing high, but to bargain hunting layout or grasp the "falling opportunity". Throughout the year, holding high score red and blue chips, bargain hunting for epidemic diseases (vaccines, special drugs, etc.) and stable growth (high score red central enterprises) are still the main line of adjusting the layout every year; For absolute excess return investors:
1) mandatory consumption, food and other epidemic spread + anti inflation or performance opportunities;
2) after the RRR reduction, China's loose monetary policy is expected to continue. Under the background of accelerated domestic substitution, we can adjust the layout of small and medium-sized market value growth stocks, especially the comprehensive domestic substitution segmentation of semiconductor materials, aeroengines and blood products.
Risk tip: geopolitical conflicts exceed expectations, global liquidity tightening exceeds expectations, and the Omicron epidemic in China exceeds expectations. The public information used in the research report may lag behind or not be updated in time.
