Basic conclusion
At the time of China US stock market earnings season, how to see the profit trend of A-Shares and US stocks? The annual results of A-Shares and US stocks in 2021 exceeded market expectations. According to comparable standards, the net profit growth rate of non-financial A shares in the annual report of 2021 was 39% respectively, which was in line with the growth rate of 20% in the two years. In 2021, the EPS growth rate of the S & P 500 index reached 56%, and the two-year compound growth rate was 13%. In the first half of 2022, the performance trend of A-Shares and US shares will be differentiated, and will converge in the second half of 2022. From the perspective of profit forecast, the growth rate of A-share profit in 2022 will first drop and then rise, and the US stock market will continue to rise. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of A-share earnings in 2022 will reach about 7%, the pace of year-on-year growth bottomed out in the first and second quarters, and gradually improved in the second half of the year. The profit growth of US stocks continues to grow at a high rate. The annual growth rate is expected to reach 17% in 2022, and the rhythm rebounds quarter by quarter.
In the first half of the year, corporate profits of A-Shares were affected by the downward pressure of the economy on the one hand, and the overall profit margin was affected by the rise in the price of upstream resource products on the other hand. At present, the profit margin of industrial enterprises in the mining industry continues to rise, which obviously puts pressure on the profit margin of the manufacturing industry. However, in the second half of the year, this trend may be reversed. On the one hand, the economy bottomed out and picked up. On the other hand, the rising trend of the price of upstream resource products may slow down, superimposing the rising price of middle and downstream products, and the profits of middle and downstream products may gradually improve. As the proportion of upstream resource products in the profits of A-share non-financial enterprises is about 10% - 15%, the improvement of middle and downstream profits in the second half of the year will drive the improvement of overall corporate profits.
The profit margin of US stocks is at an all-time high. On the one hand, the transmission of price rise of us enterprises is relatively smooth in the continuous repair of US residents' consumption; On the other hand, the concentration of major industries in the United States continues to increase, and large enterprises represented by listed companies have strong ability to increase prices. In addition, the current utilization rate of US industrial capacity is at a high level, and capital expenditure is still in the expansion stage, which will continue to support the strong profit growth of US stocks.
There is no need to worry about whether there is a market bottom after the policy bottom. The current market is in the medium-term bottom range. The inflection point of this round of performance may come faster. The bottom probability of earnings of A-share enterprises in this round is in the second quarter. The epidemic situation from March to April will affect the range, but will not affect the trend and rhythm. In addition to the performance, the core factors affecting the market may show positive changes in the second quarter. The most serious stage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have passed; China EU and China US relations have shown positive changes; After the narrowing of the US bond maturity spreads, the rate of interest will not be as strong as that of foam foam and real estate bubble crisis in 2000 or 2007, or similar to that in 2019. The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table is relatively sufficient. At present, the outflow of foreign capital does not have a macro environment similar to that in 2015, such as RMB devaluation and continuous economic downturn.
Prosperity is not in danger, and active layout. It is preferred to underestimate the value under the defensive idea, but when A-Shares change from defensive to offensive, A-Shares may usher in a growth moment. Since the beginning of this year, the market risk appetite has been low, and the sector adjustment has shown the characteristics of relatively larger adjustment range of the sector with high valuation at the beginning of the year. However, the internal adjustment range of medium and low value sectors is obviously differentiated, and the decline of industries with high risk aversion attribute is relatively smaller. In this case, the opportunities brought by overshoot in some industries deserve attention. In addition, after continuous adjustment, the current valuation cost performance of some overvalued sectors began to appear.
Industry configuration: focus on the layout of "low-carbon, intelligent and digital". The stabilization and recovery of the new energy sector, the layout of TMT hard technology on the left, pay attention to the allocation opportunities of securities companies, and gradually pay attention to the poor business consumption expectations after the epidemic eased.
1) at present, there is no significant change in the fundamentals and policies of heavy positions of new energy and other institutions, which has stabilized and rebounded or is an event with high probability. According to the recently disclosed annual report forecast, companies in the sector have generally achieved high growth. Although some investors are worried that the market has too high expectations for the performance growth of the new energy sector, there is a potential risk that the performance is lower than expected. But at present, the probability of smoothly passing the performance test is high.
2) TMT is the sector with large expectation difference, especially the sector biased towards hard technology, such as communication, computer and some semiconductors. First, the prosperity remained stable and upward; Secondly, the valuation of the sector is basically at the bottom of history; In addition, policies such as new infrastructure may become market catalytic factors. It is suggested to actively layout the core industrial chain: automobile intelligent industrial chain, 5gtob end application, industrial digitization, Huawei industrial chain, etc.
Risk tips: the economic recovery is not as expected, the macro liquidity contraction risk, and the overseas black swan event
