Global macro liquidity
The path of the Fed's table contraction is determined, and the table contraction may be started in May. On April 7, the United States of America launched a process. On April 13, fed governor Brenner publicly said that in the process of policy contraction, the contraction of the balance sheet may be equivalent to two or three interest rate hikes. As of April 6, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the interest rate meeting in March. The minutes showed that the Federal Reserve believed that it might be appropriate to reduce the asset ceiling of $95 billion per month (US $60 billion treasury bonds + US $35 billion MBS), and supported the phased adjustment in three months or moderately longer to reach the upper limit of the reduction. It may start as early as may. This total asset scale decreased by US $24882 million compared with two weeks ago, of which the scale of treasury bonds held increased by about US $1903 million.
US inflation data continued to burst, and the Fed tightened or exceeded expectations. The core CPI of the United States rose 8.5% year-on-year in March, the highest in nearly 40 years. On April 17, Brenner said that reducing inflation is the main task of the Federal Reserve. In order to curb high inflation, the Fed will raise interest rates to a neutral level in the future and tighten them further if necessary. On April 12, Chicago Fed chairman Evans predicted that the neutral federal fund interest rate would be in the range of 2.25% - 2.5%, and said that it was expected to reach the neutral interest rate by March 2023, and did not rule out the possibility of reaching the neutral interest rate by December this year.
China's macro liquidity
In terms of volume, the total amount of social finance picked up in March, mainly because the central bank strengthened the use of structural monetary instruments. The growth rate of social financing was 1273.4 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 10.4 percentage points over the previous month. The increase of social finance exceeded market expectations, which may be due to the central bank's leading credit easing and strengthening the use of structural monetary instruments. The structure of credit data in March still needs to be optimized. Government bond financing, enterprise financing and three non-standard items play a supporting role in social finance. In March, RMB loans increased significantly, enterprise loans increased, while residents' loans continued to be weak, and residents' short-term loans and medium and long-term loans increased less year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of epidemic factors and the lack of obvious improvement in real estate sales. In March, the government bond financing reached 705.2 billion yuan, an increase of 392.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The government bond financing continued to improve and reached the highest point in 2022. Enterprises' bond financing increased significantly year-on-year in February, with an increase of 389.4 billion yuan in March. Three non-standard financing increased significantly, with a new value-added of 13.3 billion yuan, an increase of 426.2 billion yuan year-on-year.
In terms of price, the expectation of interest rate reduction has failed, the interest rate of ten-year Treasury bonds has remained volatile since April, and the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds between China and the United States has been upside down. After the central economic work conference in December last year, the transmission from wide currency to wide credit was clear, which made the ten bond interest rate fluctuate upward. As the central bank failed to raise interest rates on March 15, the yield of China's 10-year Treasury bond rose to 2.83% on March 23. Since March 30, the 10-year Treasury bond has remained volatile in the range of 2.79% to 2.74%. As of April 13, the yield of treasury bonds was 2.76%, and the yield of China US ten-year Treasury bonds was upside down.
