China's easing was less than expected. On April 15, the central bank said that it would comprehensively reduce the reserve requirement by 0.25 percentage points, and some eligible banks would reduce it by an additional 0.25 percentage points. The central bank said that the reduction would release a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. In this regard, we believe that 1. Risk assets have a negative reaction. After the news was released, the FTSE China A50 Index was under pressure, and the interest rate of the most active Guokai 220205 also recorded an increase, indicating that the RRR reduction less than 0.5% expected made the market have a negative reaction; 2. The probability of continued easing in April is low. On the one hand, the implementation time of RRR reduction is April 25, indicating that the central bank has pre invested liquidity. On the other hand, the central bank clearly pointed out that "the current liquidity has been at a reasonable and sufficient level", and dr001 and dr007 have decreased significantly recently, which is significantly lower than the policy interest rate, and the market liquidity is obviously abundant. The next policy window can focus on the market and economic conditions before and after the Politburo meeting at the end of April and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on May 4.
The real economy is still in a sluggish season. At the macro level, under the repeated impact of the epidemic in China, the three PMI indexes fell across the board in March, and the financial data in March improved slightly, but the growth rate of loan balances of key financial institutions and medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents have not improved significantly. At the meso level, in March, the land acquisition of national real estate enterprises fell by nearly 50% year-on-year, and the sales of excavators and heavy trucks still fell sharply year-on-year. At the micro level, our latest research shows that the recent national downstream construction has decreased year-on-year, but the month on month improvement is weak, and the characteristics of low peak season are significant.
Since April 11, the interest rate spread of China US 10-year Treasury bonds has been upside down for the first time since July 2010, and it has recorded - 0.07% as of April 14. From the current split trend of China US monetary policy, the upside down of interest rate of China US 10-year Treasury bonds is expected to continue. Since 2007, we have seen three rounds of upside down of China US interest margin. Looking back on the asset performance in the stage, we can see that China's assets are facing certain selling pressure. The probability of rising of China's stock index is only 33%, the probability of rising of the US dollar against the RMB is 66%, and the probability of rising of wind commodities is only 33%. Among them, the performance of oil and oil is the weakest, all three samples recorded a decline, and the probability of weak performance of nonferrous metals and chemical industry is 33%. However, it should also be pointed out that the above samples are concentrated from 2008 to 2010. The time difference and number of samples are small, and the overall performance is only for reference.
The Fed's tightening expectations threaten global equity markets. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March significantly increased the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp at the meeting in May, and the table reduction process was far more than expected. It is planned to reduce the scale of assets held by the Federal Reserve by up to $95 billion per month, while the highest scale of the previous table reduction is $50 billion per month. The last round of shrinkage statement is obviously bad for equity assets, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of global stock index in the future. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with equity assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
In terms of commodities, under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, it is still necessary to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to pay close attention to the process of the situation in Ukraine and Russia, and be vigilant against the adjustment risks brought by the US dumping of reserves and the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations. Combined with the information that the situation in Ukraine and Russia is still in twists and turns, crude oil and crude oil chain commodities still maintain a high and volatile situation; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth, and with the support of dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; The first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is difficult to solve due to the superposition of high inflation in the United States, and under the background that 10Y US bonds once exceeded 2.8%, the global precious metal ETF position continues to rise, close to the historical high. We still maintain the view of bargain hunting and long of precious metals.
Strategy:
Commodity Futures: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, etc.) and precious metals are cautious; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: neutral.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; China curbs commodity overheating; The risk of Sino US game is rising; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; Iran nuclear talks.
