Key investment points:
Real estate: various relaxation policies are blooming everywhere, and the improvement of sales needs to be observed
In order to support the reasonable demand for house purchase and stabilize house prices, many places across the country have issued relaxation policies on the real estate market since this year, which can be roughly divided into three categories: the relaxation of purchase and sales restriction policies, the decline of down payment ratio and the reduction of housing loan interest rate.
Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Harbin and Lanzhou City relaxed the restriction on the purchase and sale policy, and adjusted the restrictions on two suites, registered residence certificates in the foreign countries, and housing recognition and loan. Heze, Chongqing, Nantong, Kunming and other cities have successively lowered the down payment ratio of first / second homes. There are significantly more cities involved in the reduction of mortgage interest rates: banks in more than 100 cities have independently reduced mortgage interest rates, with an average range of 20 to 60 basis points.
Since March, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has further decreased, and the price of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities has continued to fall month on month. High frequency data show that real estate demand is still relatively low.
Capital construction: the project reserves are sufficient, the funds are in place quickly, and the physical quantity forms a force to be developed
Up to now, a total of 29 provinces / autonomous regions / municipalities directly under the central government / metropolitan areas have published the list of major projects in 2022, with a total number of 32343 and an annual planned investment of more than 9.6 trillion yuan.
The Ministry of water resources, the State Grid and the State Railway Group announced the investment plan for 2022: the annual investment in water conservancy is about 800 billion yuan, the planned investment in power grid is 501.2 billion yuan, and more than 3300 kilometers of new railway lines are put into operation.
The annual investment plan for railway and power grid has exceeded 2022 trillion yuan, and the annual investment plan for railway and power grid has been announced.
In the first quarter, the total issuance of special bonds was about 1.25 trillion yuan, accounting for 86% of the amount issued in advance by the Ministry of Finance in December last year. The amount of special bonds was issued in advance, and the issuance was basically completed, with a significantly faster pace than last year.
From the high-frequency data of operation, the operation rate of cement mills and the average cement shipment rate in China decreased in late March, picked up in the two weeks since April, and is now lower than the level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plant continues to fluctuate at a low level since the Spring Festival this year.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic or policy changes have exceeded expectations.
