Main points
Macro view:
1. China has the ability to establish an appropriate prevention and control system to deal with the changes of the epidemic situation.
2. The core driving force of capital inflow into the stock market is the expected upward return, which starts from steady growth and ends at normalization.
3. The result of steady growth is the growth of residents' income. The mechanism of steady growth is that the expansion of total demand drives the expansion of enterprise profits and then pushes up the growth of residents' income.
4. The U.S. economic policy focuses on controlling inflation. After inflation falls, residents' income and expenditure will improve and expand service consumption. The United States is unlikely to fall into recession, but the economic structure tends to be normal.
5. The change of U.S. monetary policy is still related to the recovery of the U.S. economy. The United States can still maintain economic growth in the process of curbing inflation, but the growth rate is relatively slow.
Market view:
1. The probability of A-Shares at the bottom is high, because the macro profit margin level is at the bottom of the long cycle.
2. The valuation of A-Shares is in the boundary between bull and bear, and the valuation level and growth value ratio are at the median level of long cycle.
3. Because the long-term volatility of China's economy has decreased, the style characteristics will be weakened. The essence of the style characteristics in the past few years reflects the changes of China's industrial trend, and the style characteristics will continue to be weakened in the future.
4. With the opening of the time window for M1 improvement, the risk appetite of the market will gradually improve, the Trade Fair will change from the current short logic to the long logic, and the high dividend yield strategy trade will also end.
5. The growth sector is at the bottom of the long cycle, so it will not be impacted by steady growth and style fluctuations in the long run.
6. Nasdaq 100 may return to the upward trend after the inflation expectation stabilizes.
