The French general election officially kicked off, and macron and Le Pen staged a "second war" five years later. What is the future impact of macron's successful re-election or Le Pen's "revenge"? The latest comb for your reference.
The primary election with little suspense: "old acquaintances" macron and Le Pen met again after five years
Recently, the results of the first round of the 2022 French general election were released. The current president macron and the far right candidate Le Pen won and will have a final duel. The results of the first round of French presidential election showed that macron, the current president and the candidate of the "Republic Progressive Party" (center left), won the first place, winning 27.8% of the votes. Le Pen, the candidate of the "National League party" (far right), came second with 23.1% of the votes. According to the French constitution, as no candidate won more than 50% of the votes in the first round, macron and Le Pen, who ranked in the top two in the voting rate, will compete in the second round.
On April 24, macron and Le Pen will officially compete for the presidency, which is also the "double war" between them after five years. On April 24, macron and Le Pen held the second round of duel. About 4-7 days later, the final result will be settled. In fact, as early as the 2017 presidential election five years ago, macron had a head-on confrontation with Le Pen. At that time, it was difficult for the two to compete in the first round, and macron won the decisive battle by an overwhelming advantage. It remains to be seen whether macron will succeed in re-election or Le Pen will complete his "revenge" in the 2022 general election.
Changes before the decisive battle: macron's ruling "pain point" and Le Pen's full counterattack
Macron's leading edge has been gradually reduced with the public's dissatisfaction with the "high fever" of French inflation and macron's ineffective "mediation" in the situation between Russia and Ukraine. Macron has the highest support rate of more than 30%, and its advantage over Le Pen once exceeded 10 percentage points. However, with the CPI of France rising to 4% year-on-year, residents are dissatisfied with the macron government's ineffective fight against inflation. With the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, macron, who spent a lot of energy as a "mediator", fell into a dilemma. People's dissatisfaction increased and further dragged down macron's support rate.
Le Pen's more pragmatic election strategy, superimposed on voters' low willingness to vote and the "defection" of the third-party candidate's vote position, further increased the uncertainty of the election. Unlike 2017, today's Le Pen learned from the failure experience of five years ago, quietly tore off the label of "anti Europe" and deliberately avoided the issue of "Pro Russia". A more pragmatic campaign strategy has obviously added more chips to Le Pen's entry into the Elysee Palace. It is also easy to ignore that the low turnout in this round of general election and the "defection" of the third-party candidate's vote position may increase the probability of Le Pen's counter attack.
Turning the wheel of fate to the "right": the rise of French right-wing forces, or a global risk point
No matter who is in power, the overall trend of thought in France has shown a "right-wing" trend, which may be a risk point underestimated by the global capital market. Le Pen's recent strong performance has shown that France's "right-wing" forces have risen again, and the 2022 general election is destined to be a competition with little difference. If Le Pen succeeds, it means that France's governance may face a reshuffle in the past five years, which will have a huge impact on Europe and even the world. Even if macron is re elected successfully and faces a more "right-wing" France, macron's reform may become difficult in the future.
If Le Pen takes over, the internal structure of the EU may be reshaped, and bilateral relations such as China and France will also face new challenges. Le Pen made it clear that he would lead France to withdraw from NATO's military integration agency, and promised to reduce financial support to the EU; In terms of sanctions against Russia, Le Pen firmly opposes the ban on the import of Russian energy, which may be detrimental to the unity within the EU. As for China, Le Pen is tough in economy and trade, which may bring greater uncertainty to the China EU investment agreement. Le Pen also said that "the closeness between China and Russia will affect the overall situation of the world" or exert pressure on China Russia relations.
Risk warning: the impact and duration of the Russian Ukrainian war exceeded expectations; French inflation continues to have a "high fever".
