This week’s core view: the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and all departments continued to deepen the implementation of the steady growth policy. Premier Li Keqiang’s speech set the tone for the policy to continue to relax, all localities continued to expand the policy relaxation, more cities relaxed the purchase and sale restrictions and reduced the down payment ratio, and the policy level was transmitted to the first and second tier regions, the Yangtze River Delta and other higher-level regions. This week, the transaction area of new houses began to grow, the year-on-year increase of first, second and third tier cities narrowed, and the month on month increase was positive. The second-hand housing market has warmed up, the overall price decline has increased, the price decline in the first tier cities has increased significantly, the price decline in the second tier cities has increased, which has returned to positive year-on-year, and the increase in the third tier cities is slightly lower than that in the second tier cities. In terms of land, the supply and transaction area decreased significantly this week, the change of supply-demand ratio was small, and the overall premium rate and sub urban energy level decreased significantly. The total amount of bonds issued this week increased, the amount of debt repayment decreased, the net financing amount rebounded, but it was still negative, the number of trust issues increased and the amount increased. On the whole, due to the impact of the epidemic and the overall environment, there is still a certain gap in the equivalent ratio of sales, land and inventory this week, but there has been a certain increase compared with last week.
Key policy analysis: this week, the policy has been transmitted from the local to the central government again, and the central government has set the tone for the policy relaxation of this cycle. After the central government continues to set the loose tone for the policy this time, the policy will continue to complete the central to local transmission, or more cities will continue to introduce favorable policies, the energy level of policy cities will continue to improve, the policy strength will continue to increase, and the policy scope will change from one-way to comprehensive. After the RRR reduction, banks will further increase their support for real estate enterprises on the capital side, and the subsequent interest rate reduction will also play a positive role in reducing financing costs for enterprises, improving residents’ purchasing power and purchase intention. However, the main reasons affecting the current property market are the combined influence of several major factors, resulting in insufficient market confidence and decline in expectations. This RRR reduction can not play a great role, but more of a signal of policy relaxation. This week, the relaxation of real estate policies across the country continued to increase, and more cities relaxed the purchase and sale restrictions. On the one hand, the relaxation policy has been transmitted to hot second tier cities and some areas of first tier cities. Since the Yangtze River Delta is the key area and wind vane of the national real estate market, this policy relaxation will play a positive role in the continued relaxation of other cities and the recovery of market confidence. On the other hand, Nanjing, Suzhou and Shanghai all chose a small-scale pilot relaxation in the periphery of cities, which was in line with the expectation of steady growth and left room for further relaxation of follow-up policies.
One week market review: this week (2022 / 4 / 112022 / 4 / 17), Shenwan real estate index fell 2.9%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.65pct, ranking 18th / 32 among various sectors, and Hang Seng real estate construction industry index fell 1.11%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.14pct. The increase of the company’s real estate is 35. The top three real estate companies that fell this week were: China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) (- 32.98%), Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) (- 27.4%), Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) (- 24.45%). This week (2022 / 4 / 112022 / 4 / 17), Hang Seng property service and management sector fell 3.36%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.11pct and the Hang Seng China enterprise index by 1.96pct, ranking 28 / 28 among various sectors. The top three companies that rose this week were Guorui real estate (5.41%), Binjiang service (4.47%) and Hongyang service (3.28%). The top three companies that fell this week were Zhengrong service (- 15.93%), rongchuang service (- 8.43%) and Greentown Management Holdings (- 8.33%).
Real estate market monitoring: new house transaction data from last Saturday to this Friday (2022 / 4 / 9-2022 / 4 / 15): the transaction area of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 1.7721 million square meters, with a month on month increase of 16.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.5%, narrowing the decline. The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities was 1422400 square meters, an increase of 31.8% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. Last week (2022 / 4 / 4-2022 / 4 / 10), the land supply and construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities was 113146 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 82.4% and a month on month decrease of 71.08%. The land transaction and construction area was 8.244 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 71.1% and a month on month decrease of 72.27%. The supply transaction decreased significantly, and the supply-demand ratio rose to 1.37.
Financing of real estate enterprises: this week (2022 / 4 / 112022 / 4 / 17), the total amount of domestic new bonds issued by real estate enterprises was 6.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51% and a month on month increase of 80.43%. In terms of trust issuance, 18 real estate trusts were issued this week, with an issuance scale of 1.26 billion yuan, up 100% month on month. The average annual yield is 7.56% and the average term is 1.6 years.
Risk factors: policy risk: the progress of policy relaxation is less than expected. Market risk: the market recovery of the real estate industry is less than expected, and the epidemic control is less than expected
