\u3000\u30001. New energy vehicle
Pay attention to the industrial chain opportunities brought by epidemic mitigation
We believe that: affected by uncontrollable factors of the epidemic situation in Jilin, Shanghai and other places, since the end of March, many car enterprises have temporarily stopped production. Judging from the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China, it was not affected by the shutdown in March and the sales performance was excellent. According to the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid March was 484000, with a month on month increase of 114.1% and 43.9% respectively, and the penetration rate exceeded 20% for the first time, reaching 21.7%. The temporary shutdown of several auto enterprises is expected to have a certain negative effect on the supply and delivery of the industry in April. However, with the improvement of the epidemic and the recovery of the supply chain, the industrial chain is expected to usher in the repair of both supply and demand. It is expected that the impact of short-term shutdown is limited and the medium and long-term development logic of the new energy vehicle industry will not be changed.
From the perspective of long-term and short-term, the main investment lines to be grasped include:
1) after the negative factors are gradually eliminated, it has a strong rebound attribute, such as the core supply links and main suppliers of discontinued vehicle enterprises;
2) the competition pattern is relatively clear and has a strong moat target;
3) products with clear technical route and strong iterative logic driven by technological change to accelerate industrial demand;
4) after the supply and demand of the terminal is restored, the supply of negative electrode materials (graphitization), diaphragm, copper foil, etc. in the middle and upper reaches is still tight.
Core view:
The main logic line of long-term high growth of new energy vehicles remains unchanged, global electrification has achieved resonance, and new energy vehicles will enter the stage of accelerated penetration. Continue to be optimistic:
1) leading high growth and high certainty opportunities, Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) and new forces and other auto enterprises, as well as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG Chemical and other power battery supply chains;
2) opportunities for high nickel cathode materials, silicon-based cathode materials, conductive agents and new lithium salts brought by the expansion of demand for long-term battery life and fast charging and the implementation of new technologies such as 4680 battery;
3) the supply and demand of the terminal is restored, and the supply of negative electrode materials (graphitization), diaphragm, copper foil, etc. in the middle and upper reaches is still tight;
4) the increasingly clear demand positioning brings opportunities for lithium iron phosphate ternary material batteries and cathode materials;
5) the positive electrode material and precursor industry pattern brought by the trend of high nickel is more clear, and the leading advantage is expected to continue to expand;
6) under the rapid growth trend of the industry, its own advantages are enhanced, and the performance is expected to achieve the second-line target that exceeds the expected performance;
7) the competition pattern is relatively clear and has a strong moat target;
8) the accelerated layout of production capacity is expected to significantly benefit the relevant targets of the rapid growth of industrial demand;
9) hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicles that are expected to develop rapidly with policy support;
10) subdivided links with structural opportunities such as energy storage and two wheeled vehicles, as well as continuously improved charging and replacement facilities;
11) core supply links and main suppliers of discontinued vehicle enterprises;
12) excellent enterprises with clear technical route and strong iterative logic products. Beneficiary targets include: ducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducfollowing: ducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducamongamong among the following:: ofthe subject of the subject of: amongamong the subject of the subject of the following: ducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducthe the Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) , etc.
\u3000\u30002. new energy
Pay attention to relevant links with industrial chain layout advantages and profit advantages
We believe that under the current overall adjustment of the photovoltaic sector, we continue to be optimistic about manufacturers with advantages such as cost, channel and industrial chain layout, as well as relevant links with tight supply and profit advantages.
Core view:
(1) photovoltaic
In the medium and long term, “carbon peaking”, “carbon neutralization” and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% / 25% in 2025 / 2030. The goal is clear. Photovoltaic and other new energy will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction in the future.
Pay attention to the supply-demand relationship under market changes and structural opportunities under technological changes, such as polysilicon, vertical integration manufacturers, consumables and equipment links, inverter, photovoltaic adhesive film, photovoltaic glass, distributed photovoltaic, photovoltaic support, etc.
Beneficiary targets include: ‘s Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ;, Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , etc.
(2) wind power
In the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; With the continuous promotion of large-scale scenery base projects and the acceleration of offshore wind power cost reduction, the wind power scenery is expected to be improved.
In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”. We continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern changes, such as tower, spindle, casting, blade and other links; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials;
3) be optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Optimistic about the opportunities under the changes of the whole machine link pattern and technology; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links. The subject of beneficiaries include the following of the subject of the following: followingthe following of the following: 002 ” Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) etc.
(3) energy storage
In 2025, the target of energy storage installed capacity, market position and business model have been clarified, relevant national and local policies have been further improved, and energy storage will accelerate with renewable energy;
With the application of new derived ecosystems such as superimposed distributed power stations, charging piles and microgrids, the energy storage on the generation side, grid side and user side will meet new application requirements. We are optimistic about the three main lines of lithium battery, inverter and energy storage system integration under the development opportunity of energy storage.
Beneficiary targets include: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) wait.
\u3000\u30003. Risk statement
The development of new energy vehicle industry does not meet expectations; The new energy installation and power rationing improvement did not meet expectations; Risk of sharp decline in product price; The development of the epidemic exceeded the expected risk.
