One week market review
This week, the Shenwan real estate index fell 2.9%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.99%, and the relative income was – 1.91%. The performance of the sector was weaker than the market.
Industry fundamentals
This week (04.08-04.14), a total of 37097 first-hand houses were sold in 58 key cities tracked by West China real estate group, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 55.8% and a month on month growth rate of 19.6%; The total transaction area was 3.739 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 57.5% and a month on month growth rate of 19.4%.
This week (04.08-04.14), a total of 14877 second-hand houses were sold in 16 key cities tracked by West China real estate group, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 37.7% and a month on month growth rate of 49%; The total transaction area was 1411000 square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 40.2% and a month on month growth rate of 40.7%.
This week (04.08-04.14), the inventory area of commercial housing in 17 key cities tracked by West China real estate group was 197763000 square meters, with a month on month growth rate of 0% and a decontamination cycle of 109.6 weeks. This week (04.04-04.10), 11.315 million square meters of land were supplied this week, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 71.1%; The average supply price was 655 yuan / m2, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 79.3%. The land sold was 8.244 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 72.3%; The land transaction amount was 8.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 91.4%.
This week (04.08-04.14), real estate enterprises issued a total of 5.99 billion yuan of credit bonds, with a year-on-year growth rate of -58.1% and a month on month growth rate of 18.6%. Real estate collective trusts issued a total of 2.53 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 75.2%, a month on month growth rate of – 38.9%, and an average income of 7.68%.
Investment advice
This week, on April 14, the Ministry of Education held a press conference. The relevant person in charge of the housing security department of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development introduced that the Party Central Committee and the State Council have always attached great importance to solving the housing difficulties of teachers. The plan for strengthening teachers in basic education in the new era once again proposes to support local governments to improve the housing security system, increase the supply of affordable housing, and solve the housing difficulties of teachers. Since April 11, Suzhou’s housing purchase restriction policy has been adjusted from the continuous payment of social security or tax for 24 months in the first three years since the date of purchase to the cumulative payment of 24 months; In terms of housing restriction, the restriction on the sale of second-hand houses was shortened from five years to three years, and the restriction on the sale of new houses remained unchanged for three years. On April 11, Wang Wuqing, deputy director of Guangdong banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau, said at the new citizen financial services media briefing that the new citizen group provides rich human capital and labor resources for all walks of life in Guangdong and is an important force to promote the high-quality economic and social development of Guangdong. The banking and insurance institutions under their jurisdiction will increase their support for the housing of “new citizens”. On the 14th, Zou LAN, director of the financial market department of the people’s Bank of China, said at the press conference of financial statistics in the first quarter of 2022 that compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the average monthly increase of national real estate development loans in the first quarter of this year was about 150 billion yuan. Compared with the scale of new houses under construction in the same period, the balance of development loans was also at a high level. Recently, the reduction of mortgage interest rate mainly occurred at the bank level. Since March, due to the weakening of market demand, banks in more than 100 cities across the country have independently lowered mortgage interest rates according to market changes and their own business conditions, with an average range of 20 to 60 basis points.
At present, the valuation of the real estate sector is at a low level, with strong performance certainty and high dividends. We highlight Vanke, the leading real estate company with strong performance certainty. We highlight Vanke A, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 48 . Relevant beneficiary objects include Longhu group, China Jinmao, poly property, green city services, etc.
Risk tips
Sales were lower than expected, and the real estate regulation policy was tightened.
