Key investment points
Zhou Guanzi (referring to April 11 to April 17, 2022, the same below) at present, the epidemic prevention and control situation and policies are the core variables restricting China’s service consumption. Recently, China’s epidemic prevention pressure has increased, and the short-term epidemic prevention policy under the multi-point distribution of the national epidemic has become stricter, which may have another impact on consumption. In the medium and long term, the main theme of China’s epidemic prevention policy is to strictly implement normalized prevention and control measures and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.
Since April 2022, the national epidemic has broken out in scattered spots, Shanghai has continued to implement global static management, and imported cases from outside the province have occurred in important economically strong cities in many provinces. The prevention and control policies of all provinces have increased rapidly, and the scope and time of prevention and control in the location of cases have been expanded. Due to the repeated epidemics in many places caused by population mobility, the prevention and control of inter provincial, inter city and urban areas will be stricter. In the short term, the pressure on national epidemic prevention and control is still large. We expect that the offline service format will continue to be under pressure in recent 1-2 months.
According to Xinhua news agency, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the state and chairman of the Central Military Commission Xi Jinping stressed during his inspection in Hainan that we should adhere to external defense input and internal defense rebound, adhere to scientific, accurate and dynamic zeroing, and pay close attention to various measures for epidemic prevention and control. According to the new characteristics of virus variation, improve scientific and accurate prevention and control skills, improve various emergency plans, strictly implement normalized prevention and control measures, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.
Looking forward to the future, we will wait for the medium and long-term prosperity to improve. Looking forward to the future, we believe that with the superposition of favorable policies and the gradual progress of covid-19 oral specific drugs, the fundamentals of industries & companies damaged by the epidemic are expected to continue to repair. At the same time, the market expectation of the epidemic will be curbed, China’s prevention and control policies will be loosened, and consumer demand & company performance repair will continue to strengthen. There may still be repeated at the bottom, but the middle line can gradually turn to positive optimism strategically. Looking forward to 2022, we are optimistic about the marginal improvement brought by the medium-term recovery and the high-quality service consumption sector with great upward flexibility, such as catering, hotels, scenic spots, Ota, outbound tourism, etc.
1) catering: the chain wave is still surging, and the willows are waiting for the flowers. Looking forward to the future, the recurrence of the epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty in the industry. In 2020, the chain rate of catering in China was only 17.4%, and the average chain rate in developed countries reached 47.2%. In the long run, the trend of industry branding chain is still accelerating, and the leaders continue to benefit. With the steady epidemic prevention and control, we are optimistic about the upward flexibility of the performance in the era of epidemic after the catering leader. We recommend jiumaojiu and Haidilao, Helens and Naixue tea. It is suggested to pay attention to Yum china-s. Catering supply chain is highly correlated with catering performance. We are optimistic about catering supply chain opportunities under the general trend of catering industrialization. We recommend Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) , nongnongshan spring and Yihai international.
2) Hotels: the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the layout of leading enterprises is accelerated to recover in a cycle. According to yingdie consulting, single hotels or small and medium-sized hotels with weak profitability will be shut down in 2020 under the impact of the epidemic. With the advantages of scale, brand, member resources and capital, Jinjiang, Huazhu and ShouLv, the leaders of chain hotels, expanded against the trend during the epidemic period. In 2020, the market share of Jinjiang, Huazhu and BTS in terms of hotel rooms reached 20.2% / 13.9% / 9.2%, with a total of 43.3%. With the economic growth and consumption upgrading, the proportion of medium and high-end hotels has increased year by year, becoming the main force of the industry development. The epidemic accelerated industry integration and chain rate. With the smooth progress of the vaccine, the superposition of Pro cyclical economic recovery and the recovery of business travel demand, the recovery of hotel performance after the epidemic is expected. It is recommended to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Huazhu group-s.
3) Cultural Tourism: the demand has warmed up. The cultural tourism planning of the 14th five year plan is good, and the prosperity is expected to improve. The “14-year plan and 5-year plan for outbound tourism” will promote the continuous growth of China’s target tourism coverage, and the “14-year plan and 5-year plan for outbound tourism” will promote the continuous growth of China’s target tourism coverage. Under the background of stable epidemic prevention and control forms and policy support, focus on recommending the long-term performance leader Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , the scarce private leisure scenic spots, and Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , which benefits from the booming demand for peripheral tourism and opens up the space for stock growth; Recommend China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , with high-quality products and short-term passenger flow pressure.
It is suggested to pay attention to Fosun tourism culture, Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) , Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) , Mount Emei, Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) . OTA & outbound tourism business is expected to recover and overseas cultural tourism is expected to continue to benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to Tongcheng travel, Ctrip group-s, Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) .
Risk warning: the risk of continuous epidemic spread, macroeconomic fluctuations and policy changes; Risk of fierce competition in the industry; The progress of business transformation, market development and capacity improvement is lower than the market expected risk.
