Price: steel prices fell this week. This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 thread was 5080 yuan / ton, compared with – 0.2% last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 5210 yuan / ton, compared with – 0.8% last week. The price of raw materials was divided this week, and the price of port iron ore fell this week compared with last week; Coke prices rose compared with last week; Scrap prices were flat compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar rebounded slightly this week. In terms of long-term process, we calculated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week was + 1 yuan / ton, – 64 yuan / ton and + 31 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel decreased slightly this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the output of deformed steel bars declined on a weekly basis, the weekly basis of warehouses of the five major steel mills increased and the weekly basis of social warehouses decreased. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.89 million tons, an increase of 11100 tons on a week-on-week basis, of which the output of construction steel increased by 23000 tons on a week-on-week basis, the output of sector decreased by 11900 tons on a week-on-week basis, and the output of rebar decreased by 24700 tons to 3072900 tons this week. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties decreased by 407300 tons to 16477900 tons month on month, the total inventory of steel mills decreased by 6.8514 million tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 337700 tons, of which the rebar social inventory decreased by 271100 tons and the factory inventory increased by 226200 tons. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of deformed steel bars this week is 3117800 tons, up 156200 tons on a week-on-week basis.
Investment suggestion: the central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022. The reduction released a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds, adding to the recent release of relaxation policies on real estate sales in some cities, which boosted the expectation of steel consumption. In the short term, steel consumption has warmed up this week. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of deformed steel bars is 3.1178 million tons, up 156200 tons on a week-on-week basis. In terms of inventory, the steel social warehouse fell and the factory warehouse rebounded this week. On the whole, with the central bank’s RRR reduction and the introduction of loose policies such as real estate sales, the superposition of infrastructure development, the steel consumption is expected to be better, and the focus of steel price is expected to rise. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Subject matter of pipes: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) ; 6) High dividend targets: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
