This week’s view: the policies of many places have been adjusted successively this week, involving both supply and demand, and further spreading to the first and second tier high-energy cities. At present, the downward pressure on the industry and the capital side risk of real estate enterprises still exist. Under the background of virtuous circle and “three stabilities”, we believe that the unstable policy of the real estate market continues, and the valuation repair driven by the policy side is expected to continue. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. The development sector is mainly concerned about: one is the strong operating and high credit enterprises with relaxed short-term benefit policies and improved gross profit margin at the land acquisition end, which are expected to seize market share in the medium and long term, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , etc; One is the subject matter of policy game elasticity with certain support for Fundamentals, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , etc. The valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, and the downward pressure of the guidance in the middle of the quarter of the annual report has been gradually released. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is expected to bring the continuous repair of the valuation of high-quality property enterprises. Attention is paid to such services as country garden service, poly property, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Jinke service, xinchengyue service, Xingsheng business, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) many places speak out one after another, and the policy continues to improve; 2) New regulations on the supervision of pre-sale funds in Nanjing: the bank guarantee can replace the supervision funds in the same amount.
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover picked up month on month, and it will still be under pressure in the short term. This week (April 9-April 15), 27000 new houses were sold, up 12.4% month on month; 14000 second-hand houses were sold, up 55.6% month on month. In April, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 56% year-on-year, an increase of 12.2pct compared with March. Affected by repeated outbreaks and cautious supply and demand in the short term, subsequent transactions will still be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in March 2022, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 3.1pct to 80.2% month on month. 3) Inventories fell month on month and tended to decline steadily in the short term. The inventory of evidence collection in 16 cities was 101 million square meters, down 0.3% month on month. Under the pressure of capital and property market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, superimpose the epidemic situation and repeatedly affect the project progress, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) The land transaction and premium rate fell, and the proportion of the second tier increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 11.315 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 8.244 million square meters, with a month on month decrease of 71.1% and 72.3%; The transaction premium rate was 0.2%, down 2.9pct month on month. 1、 The second and third tier transactions accounted for 0%, 46.4% and 53.6% respectively, with a month on month decrease of 4.5pct, an increase of 10.2pct and a decrease of 5.7pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: 5.25 billion yuan of domestic real estate bonds were issued this week, an increase of 3.9 billion yuan month on month; The issuance of overseas bonds was US $500 million, a decrease of US $180 million month on month; The issuing interest rate of key real estate enterprises ranges from 2.3% to 10%, and the comparable issuing interest rate varies from the previous time. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 1.26 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 510 million yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector fell 2.9% this week, underperforming CSI 300 (- 0.99%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 11.03 times, and the valuation is at the quantile of 72.7% in recent five years. The top three net capital inflows from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north this week were China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; The top three net inflows of southbound funds are country garden services, China Overseas Development and China Resources Land.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
