The overall RRR reduction will help improve policy expectations and enhance market risk appetite, which is good for the bottom rebound of the securities sector. This week, the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio), and reduce some financial institutions by an additional 0.25 percentage points. According to the calculation of the people's Bank of China, the RRR reduction released a total of about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. Judging from historical experience, the overall RRR reduction will not necessarily have an immediate and unilateral positive impact on the stock market. However, considering that the current Omicron epidemic has had a great negative impact on China's real economy in the short term, the overall RRR reduction has the meaning of supporting the economy, which is helpful to improve policy expectations, enhance the market's confidence in the macro economy and improve the market's risk appetite to a certain extent, Finally, it will help to accelerate the bottom building and stabilization process of the A-share market. At the same time, for the brokerage sector at the bottom of historical valuation, it will help to accelerate its valuation repair process. Now is a good opportunity for phased layout.
The three ministries and commissions issued new policies to help listed companies bail out, aiming to stabilize market confidence and policy expectations. This week, the CSRC, together with the three ministries and commissions, issued the notice on further supporting the healthy development of listed companies. The core contents include: 1) supporting private enterprises in listing and financing, M & A and reorganization according to law, and improving the bond financing support mechanism of private enterprises; 2) Exempt listed companies from initial listing fees, annual fees and online voting service fees in 2022, so as to reduce the burden of enterprises; 3) Improve the institutional mechanism conducive to the participation of long-term institutional investors in the capital market; 4) Support eligible listed companies to buy back in order to stabilize the stock price; It is not difficult to see that at the current time, the new regulation is an important policy to help listed companies rescue, stabilize market confidence, improve policy expectations and help underpin the capital market; In the long run, while improving the overall quality of listed companies, it will contribute to the medium and long-term stable and healthy development of the A-share market.
Under the influence of the epidemic, life insurance started well and ended under pressure, and the marginal growth rate of automobile insurance fell. The order of cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total premiums of listed life insurance in the first three months of 2022 is as follows: PICC (17.9%) CPIC (4.2%) Xinhua (2.4%) Ping An (- 2.3%) Guoshou (- 2.7%). The performance of a single month in March was differentiated. Guoshou (+ 5.6%) and CPIC (+ 1.6%) achieved positive year-on-year growth, while Ping An (- 4.7%), Xinhua (- 4.1%) and PICC (- 24.6%) were significantly under pressure. We believe that it is mainly due to the obstruction of agent development and the aggravation of team loss caused by the multi-point spread of the epidemic. Although the sales market of increased life insurance is hot, we expect the impact of the epidemic to continue to deepen in the second quarter, and we will continue to pay attention to the increase of follow-up agents and the improvement of production capacity. The order of cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total premiums of listed property insurance in the first three months of 2022 is: CPIC (13.8%) PICC (12.2%) Ping An (10.3%). However, from the marginal point of view, the growth rate in March decreased significantly month on month, mainly due to the decline in the growth rate of auto insurance. The year-on-year growth rate of auto insurance business of PICC in March decreased by 10.3pp to 4.6% month on month. We expect that the new car sales in the second quarter will also be directly affected by the epidemic, but the scale advantage and market share increase of large insurance enterprises are expected to maintain.
Investment proposal and investment object
In terms of securities companies, favorable capital market policies and institutional innovation are still the main theme of the current sector, maintaining a positive rating. In the difficult times of the market, we should stick to the clear and clear leader of undervalued value, and still advocate the main line of derivatives. We recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , overweight), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ( Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , overweight). We suggest paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (03908, Unrated).
In terms of diversified finance, A-share recommended Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (buy), the leading high-altitude work platform lessee, and recommended paying attention to Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) (not rated); Hong Kong stocks recommend Far East Hongxin, the leading financial leasing company (03360, buy); In terms of China concept stocks, although the reversal of the market has not yet come, the policy expectation has improved significantly. Under the repeated market, we can bargain hunting and build positions to gain short-term flexibility. It is suggested to pay attention to futu Holdings (futu. O, buy) and tiger securities (TIGR. O, buy).
In terms of insurance, the transformation of life insurance liabilities is still advancing, and the decline of team size and the adjustment of product structure lead to the corresponding increase of production capacity. However, we should continue to pay attention to the production capacity climbing under the stable scale and the release of demand after the activation of security awareness; The logic of both quantity and quality of auto insurance is solid, the growth momentum of non auto insurance is strong and the space is broad, and the opportunity of property insurance allocation is reiterated; There is not much pessimistic expectation on the investment side. Maintain the positive rating of the industry, and follow-up suggestions focus on China Property Insurance (02328, not rated), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) ( Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , buy), AIA (01299, not rated).
Risk tips
The suppression of systemic risk on the performance and valuation of securities business; Stricter supervision than expected;
The long-term interest rate is lower than expected; Related policy risks in diversified financial field.
