This week's market
This week (22.4.11-22.4.15), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, gem index and media board index fell by 1.2%, 2.6%, 4.3% and 6.5% respectively. The top three stocks in the sector rose this week Shenzhen Bingchuan Network Co.Ltd(300533) (36.2%), Guangxi Radio And Television Information Network Corporation Limited(600936) (10.8%), Spearhead Integrated Marketing Communication Group(300071) (10.1%), and the last three Three'S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) (- 26.0%), Chengdu B-Ray Media Co.Ltd(600880) (- 22.6%) and Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) (- 21.0%).
Stocks in the overseas media sector rose this week, with the top three Lexiang group (10.3%), straw bear Entertainment (9.2%), ZuLong Entertainment (6.9%), the last three Zhihu (- 23.0%), China youzan (- 13.2%) and Youdao (- 10.9%).
This week's view
According to gamelook express, this week, the edition Department has issued the first batch of game edition numbers in 2022 to the reviewed game products, which is also the first time to issue game edition numbers since July 22, 2021. According to the latest announcement of the game approval results of the State Press and publication administration, a total of 45 game version numbers were distributed this time. According to titanium media, this round of game version number distribution includes 39 mobile games, 5 client games and 1 switch host game, including dream voyage of A-share listed company Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) tower hunter of G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) tower hunter of Yoozoo Interactive Co.Ltd(002174) young Three Kingdoms: Pocket battle of Kingnet Network Co.Ltd(002517) dragon legend of Kingnet Network Co.Ltd(002517) and careful fire candle of creative dream world of Hong Kong stock listed company "Party star" of heart company, etc. We believe that:
(1) solve the survival problems of small and medium-sized game manufacturers. The distribution of the game version number is more biased towards the small and medium-sized game manufacturers with large losses on the whole, which is conducive to restoring the confidence of the industry and the market.
(2) the industry has been cleared significantly, and the leading companies have benefited significantly. After more than eight months of suspension of edition numbers, the game industry has experienced a significant liquidation, and the competitive advantage of leading game companies is highlighted under the survival of the fittest.
(3) the game going to sea has become a deterministic trend and will not be stopped by the release of the version number. Affected by the previous suspension of game version numbers, game companies have achieved more optimistic results in seeking self-help from the game at sea. Therefore, the re issuance of game version number will not change the formed trend of going to sea. In the future, going to sea is still an important source of performance for game companies, and the resonance of China + overseas business is expected to improve the performance flexibility.
(4) the valuation and performance of the game industry are expected to rise. At present, the heavyweight products of mainstream listed companies are subject to the release progress of version numbers. After the release of game version numbers, the certainty and predictability of the online schedule of such game products are enhanced, and the valuation and performance are expected to be "double-click".
According to gamelook, this week, the Department of network audio-visual program management of the State Administration of radio and television and the Publishing Bureau of the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee issued the notice on strengthening the management of game live broadcast on the network audio-visual program platform (hereinafter referred to as the notice), requiring that it is strictly prohibited to spread illegal games on the network audio-visual platform; Strengthen the management of online game live programs; Strengthen the guidance of game anchor's code of conduct; It is strictly prohibited for illegal and immoral personnel to make use of the live broadcast to appear on the camera; Urge the webcast platform to establish and implement a juvenile protection mechanism; And strictly implement the classified examination and filing system. According to the notice, all kinds of online audio-visual programs such as live broadcast and short video shall not broadcast online games without the approval of the competent department, that is, games without version number. We believe that there is no need for the market to worry about the recurrence of media regulatory policies, and the stability and consistency of media regulatory policies are expected to be enhanced in the future:
(1) in the general direction, the expectation of stable, consistent and positive policy supervision remains unchanged. The previous meeting of the Finance Committee (March 16) has made it clear that relevant departments should earnestly assume their responsibilities, actively introduce policies conducive to the market and carefully introduce contractive policies. The anticipation of financial policies should be consistent with the stability of financial policies in advance. The reopening of the game edition this week is in line with the spirit of the meeting. Therefore, the policy supervision is expected to be stable and consistent in the general direction, and tend to release favorable and open policies, which will help the profitability of the media sector remain stable and sustainable;
(2) specifically, this week's notice is not a new regulation, which is consistent with the previous regulation, and the expectation should not be pessimistic. According to gamelook, the measures for the administration of online performance business activities issued by the Ministry of culture and tourism in December 2016 and officially implemented in January 2017 stipulates that online performance shall not appear, including "using online game products that have not obtained the content examination and approval number or filing number of the cultural administration department to display or explain online game techniques"; The notice on the law enforcement work related to the online game market issued by the comprehensive law enforcement supervision bureau of the cultural market of the Ministry of culture and tourism in December 2019 defines the law enforcement basis of the cultural law enforcement department for the online game market, focusing on illegal behaviors such as the operation of online games without version number, including the live broadcast of games without version number; At the same time, the "notice" itself also explains that it is not a new rule that games without version number cannot be broadcast live. We believe that:
The "notice" is not a new regulation, but requires subordinate organs in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hubei and other places to strictly enforce the law and investigate and deal with violations. The policy and regulatory expectations are consistent with the previous ones, and the market should not be pessimistic.
The impact area is relatively small. It is expected to affect overseas PC games and Steam games in non mainstream Chinese markets, as well as the low-cost purchase mode of game companies (release live publicity in advance of the version number, etc.).
Investment advice
(1) influenced by liquidity, China US game and strong regulatory expectations, Internet leaders continue to kill and have entered the oversold range. This week's policy positive is expected to boost market sentiment, and we continue to look forward to the new opportunities for the Internet 3 era. Kwai TSU recommends the community's short video leader [fast -W], while also paying attention to the oversold Internet leader [-W, Tencent holdings].
(2) immersing in the Internet is the future development trend. Metauniverse is in the initial stage of development. Compared with the implementation of C-end applications (requiring the popularization of access terminals), we believe that g-end / b-end projects are expected to be implemented first. At present, various countries and local governments have gradually introduced relevant policies of the meta universe. City pavilions, exhibition halls, theme pavilions, enterprise pavilions and cultural tourism performance activities are expected to become the first application scenarios for virtual cultural and creative projects. Core recommendations include [ Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) ], creative design leaders of cultural and tourism activities [ Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) ], [ Silkroad Visual Technology Co.Ltd(300556) ], etc. In the near future, many first tier cities will hold the meta universe summit, which highlights the thematic opportunities of the meta universe sector (while considering the impact of external environmental changes on risk appetite), and it is suggested to pay attention to the direction of the meta universe platform [ Beijing Quanshi World Online Network Information Co.Ltd(002995) ]; Virtual digital human direction [ Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) ], [ Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) ].
(3) we are optimistic about the fundamentals of the game industry for a long time, and the short-term policy disturbance is expected to promote the development of the game industry. At present, the share price of game companies has experienced a deep correction due to the suspension of edition numbers. After the reissue of edition numbers, the industry certainty has been established and has long-term investment value. It is suggested to focus on [ Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ], which has strong operation ability, proven high-quality game R & D ability and sea distribution ability; [ Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ] with high-quality R & D ability and end-to-end tour of Zhuxian world; Focusing on research and development, small and beautiful [ G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ]; [netease-s] with rich product matrix and strong risk resistance; [bilibili-sw] and [heart company] which are greatly affected by the game version number.
Risk tips
The development progress of metauniverse is less than expected, the improvement of overseas liquidity is less than expected, the policy supervision is stricter than expected, the flow decline of game companies affected by the version number is more than expected, and the risk appetite is reduced due to changes in the external environment.
